Books: Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market
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Walter Bagehot >> Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market
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And there is a partnership in industries. No single large industry
can be depressed without injury to other industries; still less can
any great group of industries. Each industry when prosperous buys
and consumes the produce probably of most (certainly of very many)
other industries, and if industry A fail and is in difficulty,
industries B, and C, and D, which used to sell to it, will not be
able to sell that which they had produced in reliance on A's demand,
and in future they will stand idle till industry A recovers, because
in default of A there will be no one to buy the commodities which
they create. Then as industry B buys of C, D, &c., the adversity of
B tells on C, D, &c., and as these buy of E, F, &c., the effect is
propagated through the whole alphabet. And in a certain sense it
rebounds. Z feels the want caused by the diminished custom of A, B,
& C, and so it does not earn so much; in consequence, it cannot lay
out as much on the produce of A, B, & C, and so these do not earn as
much either. In all this money is but an instrument. The same thing
would happen equally well in a trade of barter, if a state of barter
on a very large scale were not practically impossible, on account of
the time and trouble which it would necessarily require. As has been
explained, the fundamental cause is that under a system in which
everyone is dependent on the labour of everyone else, the loss of
one spreads and multiplies through all, and spreads and multiplies
the faster the higher the previous perfection of the system of
divided labour, and the more nice and effectual the mode of
interchange. And the entire effect of a depression in any single
large trade requires a considerable time before it can be produced.
It has to be propagated, and to be returned through a variety of
industries, before it is complete. Short depressions, in
consequence, have scarcely any discernible consequences; they are
over before we think of their effects. It is only in the case of
continuous and considerable depressions that the cause is in action
long enough to produce discernible effects.
The most common, and by far the most important, case where the
depression in one trade causes depression in all others, is that of
depressed agriculture. When the agriculture of the world is ill off,
food is dear. And as the amount of absolute necessaries which a
people consumes cannot be much diminished, the additional amount
which has to be spent on them is so much subtracted from what used
to be spent on other things. All the industries, A, B, C, D, up to
Z, are somewhat affected by an augmentation in the price of corn,
and the most affected are the large ones, which produce the objects
in ordinary times most consumed by the working classes. The clothing
trades feel the difference at once, and in this country the liquor
trade (a great source of English revenue) feels it almost equally
soon. Especially when for two or three years harvests have been bad,
and corn has long been dear, every industry is impoverished, and
almost every one, by becoming poorer, makes every other poorer too.
All trades are slack from diminished custom, and the consequence is
a vast stagnant capital, much idle labour, and a greatly retarded
production.
It takes two or three years to produce this full calamity, and the
recovery from it takes two or three years also. If corn should long
be cheap, the labouring classes have much to spend on what they like
besides. The producers of those things become prosperous, and have a
greater purchasing power. They exercise it, and that creates in the
class they deal with another purchasing power, and so all through
society. The whole machine of industry is stimulated to its maximum
of energy, just as before much of it was slackened almost to its
minimum.
A great calamity to any great industry will tend to produce the same
effect, but the fortunes of the industries on which the wages of
labour are expended are much more important than those of all
others, because they act much more quickly upon a larger mass of
purchasers. On principle, if there was a perfect division of labour,
every industry would have to be perfectly prosperous in order that
any one might be so. So far, therefore, from its being at all
natural that trade should develop constantly, steadily, and equably,
it is plain, without going farther, from theory as well as from
experience, that there are inevitably periods of rapid dilatation,
and as inevitably periods of contraction and of stagnation.
Nor is this the only changeable element in modern industrial
societies. Credit--the disposition of one man to trust another--is
singularly varying. In England, after a great calamity, everybody is
suspicious of everybody; as soon as that calamity is forgotten,
everybody again confides in everybody. On the Continent there has
been a stiff controversy as to whether credit should or should not
be called capital:' in England, even the little attention once paid
to abstract economics is now diverted, and no one cares in the least
for refined questions of this kind: the material practical point is
that, in M. Chevalier's language, credit is 'additive,' or
additionalthat is, in times when credit is good productive power is
more efficient, and in times when credit is bad productive power is
less efficient. And the state of credit is thus influential, because
of the two principles which have just been explained. In a good
state of credit, goods lie on hand a much less time than when credit
is bad; sales are quicker; intermediate dealers borrow easily to
augment their trade, and so more and more goods are more quickly and
more easily transmitted from the producer to the consumer.
These two variable causes are causes of real prosperity. They
augment trade and production, and so are plainly beneficial, except
where by mistake the wrong things are produced, or where also by
mistake misplaced credit is given, and a man who cannot produce
anything which is wanted gets the produce of other people's labour
upon a false idea that he will produce it. But there is another
variable cause which produces far more of apparent than of real
prosperity and of which the effect is in actual life mostly confused
with those of the others.
In our common speculations we do not enough remember that interest
on money is a refined idea, and not a universal one. So far indeed
is it from being universal, that the majority of saving persons in
most countries would reject it. Most savings in most countries are
held in hoarded specie. In Asia, in Africa, in South America,
largely even in Europe, they are thus held, and it would frighten
most of the owners to let them out of their keeping. An Englishman a
modern Englishman at leastassumes as a first principle that he ought
to be able to 'put his money into something safe that will yield 5
per cent;' but most saving persons in most countries are afraid to
'put their money' into anything. Nothing is safe to their minds;
indeed, in most countries, owing to a bad Government and a backward
industry, no investment, or hardly any, really is safe. In most
countries most men are content to forego interest; but in more
advanced countries, at some times there are more savings seeking
investment than there are known investments for; at other times
there is no such superabundance. Lord Macaulay has graphically
described one of the periods of excess. He says'During the interval
between the Restoration and the Revolution the riches of the nation
had been rapidly increasing. Thousands of busy men found every
Christmas that, after the expenses of the year's housekeeping had
been defrayed out of the year's income, a surplus remained; and how
that surplus was to be employed was a question of some difficulty.
In our time, to invest such a surplus, at something more than three
per cent, on the best security that has ever been known in the
world, is the work of a few minutes. But in the seventeenth century,
a lawyer, a physician, a retired merchant, who had saved some
thousands, and who wished to place them safely and profitably, was
often greatly embarrassed. Three generations earlier, a man who had
accumulated wealth in a profession generally purchased real
property, or lent his savings on mortgage. But the number of acres
in the kingdom had remained the same; and the value of those acres,
though it had greatly increased, had by no means increased so fast
as the quantity of capital which was seeking for employment. Many
too wished to put their money where they could find it at an hour's
notice, and looked about for some species of property which could be
more readily transferred than a house or a field. A capitalist might
lend on bottomry or on personal security; but, if he did so, he ran
a great risk of losing interest and principal. There were a few
joint stock companies, among which the East India Company held the
foremost place; but the demand for the stock of such companies was
far greater than the supply. Indeed the cry for a new East India
Company was chiefly raised by persons who had found difficulty in
placing their savings at interest on good security. So great was
that difficulty that the practice of hoarding was common. We are
told that the father of Pope, the poet, who retired from business in
the City about the time of the Revolution, carried to a retreat in
the country a strong box containing near twenty thousand pounds, and
took out from time to time what was required for household expenses;
and it is highiy probable that this was not a solitary case. At
present the quantity of coin which is hoarded by private persons is
so small, that it would, if brought forth, make no perceptible
addition to the circulation. But, in the earlier part of the reign
of William the Third, all the greatest writers on currency were of
opinion that a very considerable mass of gold and silver was hidden
in secret drawers and behind wainscots.
'The natural effect of this state of things was that a crowd of
projectors, ingenious and absurd, honest and knavish, employed
themselves in devising new schemes for the employment of redundant
capital. It was about the year 1688 that the word stockjobber was
first heard in London. In the short space of four years a crowd of
companies, every one of which confidently held out to subscribers
the hope of immense gains, sprang into existence--the Insurance
Company, the Paper Company, the Lutestring Company, the Pearl
Fishery Company, the Glass Bottle Company, the Alum Company, the
Blythe Coal Company, the Swordblade Company. There was a Tapestry
Company, which would soon furnish pretty hangings for all the
parlours of the middle class, and for all the bedchambers of the
higher. There was a Copper Company, which proposed to explore the
mines of England, and held out a hope that they would prove not less
valuable than those of Potosi. There was a Diving Company, which
undertook to bring up precious effects from shipwrecked vessels, and
which announced that it had laid in a stock of wonderful machines
resembling complete suits of armour. In front of the helmet was a
huge glass eye like that of a Cyclops; and out of the crest went a
pipe through which the air was to be admitted. The whole process was
exhibited on the Thames. Fine gentlemen and fine ladies were invited
to the show, were hospitably regaled, and were delighted by seeing
the divers in their panoply descend into the river and return laden
with old iron and ship's tackle. There was a Greenland Fishing
Company, which could not fail to drive the Dutch whalers and herring
busses out of the Northern Ocean. There was a Tanning Company, which
promised to furnish leather superior to the best that was brought
from Turkey or Russia. There was a society which undertook the
office of giving gentlemen a liberal education on low terms, and
which assumed the sounding name of the Royal Academies Company. In a
pompous advertisement it was announced that the directors of the
Royal Academies Company had engaged the best masters in every branch
of knowledge, and were about to issue twenty thousand tickets at
twenty shillings each. There was to be a lottery--two thousand prizes
were to be drawn; and the fortunate holders of the prizes were to be
taught, at the charge of the Company, Latin, Greek, Hebrew, French,
Spanish, conic sections, trigonometry, heraldry, japaning,
fortification, bookkeeping, and the art of playing the theorbo.'
The panic was forgotten till Lord Macaulay revived the memory of it.
But, in fact, in the South Sea Bubble, which has always been
remembered, the form was the same, only a little more extravagant;
the companies in that mania were for objects such as these:--' "Wrecks
to be fished for on the Irish Coast--Insurance of Horses and other
Cattle (two millions)--Insurance of Losses by Servants--To make Salt
Water Fresh--For building of Hospitals for Bastard Children--For
building of Ships against Pirates--For making of Oil from Sun-flower
Seeds--For improving of Malt Liquors--For recovery of Seamen's Wages--For
extracting of Silver from Lead--For the transmuting of Quicksilver
into a malleable and fine Metal--For making of Iron with Pit-coal--For
importing a Number of large Jack Asses from Spain--For trading in
Human Hair--For fatting of Hogs--For a Wheel of Perpetual Motion." But
the most strange of all, perhaps, was "For an Undertaking which
shall in due time be revealed." Each subscriber was to pay down two
gnineas, and hereafter to receive a share of one hundred, with a
disclosure of the object; and so tempting was the offer, that 1,000
of these subscriptions were paid the same morning, with which the
projector went off in the afternoon.' In 1825 there were
speculations in companies nearly as wild, and just before 1866 there
were some of a like nature, though not equally extravagant. The fact
is, that the owners of savings not finding, in adequate quantities,
their usual kind of investments, rush into anything that promises
speciously, and when they find that these specious investments can
be disposed of at a high profit, they rush into them more and more.
The first taste is for high interest, but that taste soon becomes
secondary. There is a second appetite for large gains to be made by
selling the principal which is to yield the interest. So long as
such sales can be effected the mania continues; when it ceases to be
possible to effect them, ruin begins.
So long as the savings remain in possession of their owners, these
hazardous gamblings in speculative undertakings are almost the whole
effect of an excess of accumulation over tested investment. Little
effect is produced on the general trade of the country. The owners
of the savings are too scattered and far from the market to change
the majority of mercantile transactions. But when these savings come
to be lodged in the hands of bankers, a much wider result is
produced. Bankers are close to mercantile life; they are always
ready to lend on good mercantile securities; they wish to lend on
such securities a large part of the money entrusted to them. When,
therefore, the money so entrusted is unusually large, and when it
long continues so, the general trade of the country is, in the
course of time, changed. Bankers are daily more and more ready to
lend money to mercantile men; more is lent to such men; more
bargains are made in consequence; commodities are more sought after;
and, in consequence, prices rise more and more.
The rise of prices is quickest in an improving state of credit.
Prices in general are mostly determined by wholesale transactions.
The retail dealer adds a percentage to the wholesale prices, not, of
course, always the same percentage, but still mostly the same. Given
the wholesale price of most articles, you can commonly tell their
retail price. Now wholesale transactions are commonly not cash
transactions, but bill transactions. The duration of the bill varies
with the custom of the trade; it may be two, three months, or six
weeks, but there is always a bill. Times of credit mean times in
which the bills of many people are taken readily; times of bad
credit, times when the bills of much fewer people are taken, and
even of those suspiciously. In times of good credit there are a
great number of strong purchasers, and in times of bad credit only a
smaller number of weak ones; and, therefore, years of improving
credit, if there be no disturbing cause, are years of rising price,
and years of decaying credit, years of falling price.
This is the meaning of the saying 'John Bull can stand many things,
but he cannot stand two per cent:' it means that the greatest effect
of the three great causes is nearly peculiar to England; here, and
here almost alone, the excess of savings over investments is
deposited in banks; here, and here only, is it made use of so as to
affect trade at large; here, and here only, are prices gravely
affected. In these circumstances, a low rate of interest, long
protracted, is equivalent to a total depreciation of the precious
metals. In his book on the effect of the great gold discoveries,
Professor Jevons showed, and so far as I know, was the first to
show, the necessity of eliminating these temporary changes of value
in gold before you could judge properly of the permanent
depreciation. He proved, that in the years preceding both 1847 and
1857 there was a general rise of prices; and in the years succeeding
these years, a great fall. The same might be shown of the years
before and after 866, _mutatis mutandis_.
And at the present moment we have a still more remarkable example,
which was thus analysed in the Economist of the 30th December, 1871,
in an article which I venture to quote as a whole:
'THE GREAT RISE IN THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES.
'Most persons are aware that the trade of the country is in a state
of great activity. All the usual tests indicate that--the state of the
Revenue, the Bankers' Clearing-house figures, the returns of exports
and imports are all plain, and all speak the same language. But few
have, we think, considered one most remarkable feature of the
present time, or have sufficiently examined its consequences. That
feature is the great rise in the price of most of the leading
articles of trade during the past year. We give at the foot of this
paper a list of articles, comprising most first-rate articles of
commerce, and it will be seen that the rise of price, though not
universal and not uniform, is nevertheless very striking and very
general. The most remarkable cases are--
January December
L, s. d. L, s. d.
Wool--South Down hogs per pack 13 0 0 21 15 0
Cotton--Upland ordinary per lb. 0 0 7 1/4 0 0 8
No. 40 mule yarn, &c. per lb. 0 1 1 1/2 0 1 2 1/2
Iron--Bars, British per ton 7 2 6 8 17 6
Pig, No. 1 Clyde per ton 2 13 3 3 16 0
Lead per ton 18 7 6 8 17 6
Tin per ton 137 0 0 157 0 0
Copper--Sheeting per ton 75 10 0 95 0 0
Wheat (GAZETTE average) per qr. 2 12 0 2 15 8
--and in other cases there is a tendency upwards in price much more
often than there is a tendency downwards.
'This general rise of price must be due either to a diminution in
the supply of the quoted articles, or to an increased demand for
them. In some cases there has no doubt been a short supply. Thus in
wool, the diminution in the home breed of sheep has had a great
effect on the price--
In 1869 the home stock of sheep was 29,538,000
In 1871 27,133,000
Diminution 2,405,000
Equal to 8.1 per cent
and in the case of some other articles there may be a similar cause
operating. But taking the whole mass of the supply of commodities in
this country, as shown by the plain test of the quantities imported,
it has not diminished, but augmented. The returns of the Board of
Trade prove this in the most striking manner, and we give below a
table of some of the important articles. The rise in prices must,
therefore, be due to an increased demand, and the first question is,
to what is that demand due?
'We believe it to be due to the combined operation of three causes
cheap money, cheap corn, and improved credit. As to the first
indeed, it might be said at first sight that so general an increase
must be due to a depreciation of the precious metals. Certainly in
many controversies facts far less striking have been alleged as
proving it. And indeed there plainly is a diminution in the
purchasing power of money, though that diminution is not general and
permanent, but local and temporary. The peculiarity of the precious
metals is that their value depends for unusually long periods on the
quantity of them which is in the market. In the long run, their
value, like that of all others, is determined by the cost at which
they can be brought to market. But for all temporary purposes, it is
the supply in the market which governs the price, and that supply in
this country is exceedingly variable. After a commercial crisis, 1866
for example, two things happen: first, we call in the debts which are
owing to us in foreign countries; and we require these debts to be
paid to us, not in commodities, but in money. From this cause
principally, and omitting minor causes, the bullion in the Bank of
England, which was 13,156,000 L. in May 1866, rose to 19,413,000 L.
in January 1867, being an increase of over 6,000,000 L. And then
there comes also a second cause, tending in the same direction.
During a depressed period the savings of the country increase
considerably faster than the outlet for them. A person who has made
savings does not know what to do with them. And this new unemployed
saving means additional money. Till a saving is invested or employed
it exists only in the form of money: a farmer who has sold his wheat
and has 100 L. 'to the good,' holds that 100 L. in money, or some
equivalent for money, till he sees some advantageous use to be made
of it. Probably he places it in a bank, and this enables it to do
more work. If 3,000,000 L. of coin be deposited in a bank, and it
need only keep 1,000,000 L. as a reserve, that sets 2,000,000 L.
free, and is for the time equivalent to an increase of so much coin.
As a principle it may be laid down that all new unemployed savings
require _either an increased stock of the precious metals, or an
increase in the efficiency of the banking expedients by which these
metals are economised_. In other words, in a saving and uninvesting
period of the national industry, we accumulate gold, and augment the
efficiency of our gold. If therefore such a saving period follows
close upon an occasion when foreign credits have been diminished and
foreign debts called in, the augmentation in the effective quantity
of gold in the country is extremely great. The old money called in
from abroad and the new money representing the new saving co-operate
with one another. And their natural tendency is to cause a general
rise in price, and what is the same thing, a diffused diminution in
the purchasing power of money.
'Up to this point there is nothing special in the recent history of
the money market. Similar events happened both after the panic of
1847, and after that of 1857. But there is another cause of the same
kind, and acting in the same direction, which is peculiar to the
present time; this cause is the amount of the foreign money, and
especially of the money of foreign Governments, now in London. No
Government probably ever had nearly as much at its command as the
German Government now has. Speaking broadly, two things happened:
during the war England was the best place of shelter for foreign
money, and this made money more cheap here than it would otherwise
have been; after the war England became the most convenient paying
place, and the most convenient resting place for money, and this
again has made money cheaper. The commercial causes, for which there
are many precedents, have been aided by a political cause for the
efficacy of which there is no precedent.
'But though plentiful money is necessary to high prices, and though
it has a natural tendency to produce these prices, yet it is not of
itself sufficient to produce them. In the cases we are dealing with,
in order to lower prices there must not only be additional money,
but a satisfactory mode of employing that additional money. This is
obvious if we remember whence that augmented money is derived. It is
derived from the savings of the people, and will only be invested in
the manner which the holders for the time being consider suitable to
such savings. It will not be used in mere expenditure; it would be
contrary to the very nature of it so to use it. A new channel of
demand is required to take off the new money, or that new money will
not raise prices. It will lie idle in the banks, as we have often
seen it. We should still see the frequent, the common phenomenon of
dull trade and cheap money existing side by side.
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