Books: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
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Sir William Petty >> Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
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Annual Births Annual Burials
In all In
all
London and bills of mortality 1 in 26.5 20,000 1 in 24.1
22,000
The cities and market towns 1 in 28.5 30,600 1 in 30.4
28,600
The villages and hamlets 1 in 29.4 29,200 1 in 34.4
119,400
1 in 28.95 190,000 1 in 32.35
170,000
Vide Scheme B.
So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and
the number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000.
SCHEME B.
Males Females Males Females Both
In London and 10 to 13 230,000 300,000 530,000
bills of mortality
In the other cities 8 to 9 410,000 460,000 870,000
and market-towns
In the villages and 100 to 99 2,060,000 2,040,000 4,100,000
hamlets
27 to 28 2,700,000 2,800,000 5,500,000
That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments to
bear these proportions.
People. Males. Females.
Husbands and wives 1,900,000 950,000 950,000
at above, 34.5%
Widowers at above 1.5% 90,000 90,000
Widows at about 4.5% 240,000 240,000
Children at above 45% 2,500,000 1,300,000 1,200,000
Servants at about 10.5% 560,000 260,000 300,000
Sojourners and
single persons 4% 210,000 100,000 110,000
100% 5,500,000 2,700,000 2,800,000
And that the different proportions in each of the said articles
between London, the great towns, and the villages, may the better
appear, he has formed the following scheme:-
London and Bills The other Cities The Villages and
of Mortality. and great Towns. Hamlets.
Souls. Souls. Souls.
Husbands
and
Wives 37% 196,100 36% 313,200 34% 1,394,000
Widowers 2% 10,600 2% 17,400 1.5% 61,500
Widows 7% 37,100 6% 52,200 4.5% 184,500
Children 33% 174,900 40% 348,000 47% 1,927,000
Servants 13% 68,900 11% 95,700 10% 410,000
Sojourners 8% 42,400 5% 43,500 3% 123,000
100% 530,000 100% 870,000 100% 4,100,000
SCHEME B (Continued)
He further observes, supposing the people to be 5,500,000, that the
yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000, and that the several
ages of the people may be as follows:
In all Males
Females
Those under 1 years old 170,000 88,500
81,500
Those under 5 years old 820,000 413,300
406,700
Those under 10 years old 1,520,000 762,900
757,100
Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 1,578,000
1,682,000
Those above 21 years old 2,700,000 1,300,000
1,400,000
Those above 25 years old 2,400,000 1,152,000
1,248,000
Those above 60 years old 600,000 270,000
330,000
Those under 16 years old 2,240,000
Those above 16 years old 3,260,000
Total of the people 5,500,000
That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof
those under twenty-five years are 25.5 per cent., and those above
twenty-five years are 2.5 per cent.
That the maidens are about 28.5 per cent. of the whole.
Whereof those under 25 years are 26.5 per cent.
And those above 25 years are 2 per cent.
That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one
with another, 27 years and a half.
That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living
under 20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the
males are under 19, and one half of the females are under 21 years.
That the ages of the people, according to their several
distinctions, are as follows, viz.:-
Vide Scheme C.
Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of
the income and expense of the several families of England,
calculated for the year 1688.
SCHEME C
The husbands are aged 43 years apiece, which, at 17.25% makes 742
years.
The wives 40 17.25% 690
The widowers 56 1.5% 84
The widows 60 4.5% 270
The children 12 45% 540
The servants 27 10.5% 284
The sojourners 35 4% 140
At a medium 27.5 100 2,750
Vide Scheme D.
Mr. King's modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to
communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more
safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by
some little operations of our own upon the same subject, and
compared them with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure
in the like studies.
What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is
no positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in
that matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that
supposing the inhabitants of England to have been, A.D. 1300,
2,860,000 heads, by the orderly series of increase allowed of by all
writers they may probably be about A.D. 1700, 5,500,000 heads; but
if they were A.D. 1300 either less or more, the case must
proportionably alter; for as to his allowances for plagues, great
mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the plantations, they seem
very reasonable, and not well to be controverted.
Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though
the text deserves much a better comment.
SCHEME D.--A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL
FAMILIES OF ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR
1688
Number of Ranks, Degrees and Heads per
Families. Qualifications Family.
160 Temporal Lords 40
26 Spiritual Lords 20
800 Baronets 16
600 Knights 13
3,000 Esquires 10
12,000 Gentlemen 8
5,000 Persons in greater offices and places 8
5,000 Persons in lesser offices and places 6
2,000 Eminent merchants and traders by sea 8
8,000 Lesser merchants and traders by sea 6
10,000 Persons in the law 7
2,000 Eminent clergymen 6
8,000 Lesser clergymen 5
40,000 Freeholders of the better sort 7
120,000 Freeholders of the lesser sort 5.5
150,000 Farmers 5
15,000 Persons in liberal arts and sciences 5
50,000 Shopkeepers and tradesmen 4.5
60,000 Artisans and handicrafts 4
5,000 Naval officers 4
4,000 Military officers 4
500,586 5.33
50,000 Common seamen 3
364,000 Labouring people and out-servants 3.5
400,000 Cottagers and paupers 3.25
35,000 Common soldiers 2
849,000
Vagrants, as gipsies, thieves,
beggars, &c. 3.25
500,586 Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 5.33
849,000 Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 3.25
1,349,586 Net totals 4 1/13
[The previous table continues but is too wide for the page. It has
been split down the middle--DP.]
Number Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly
of Income Income Income Expense Increase Incr.
Persons per. in per. per per. in
Family general Hd. Hd. Hd. General
P. s. P. P. s. P. s. d. P.s. d. P.
6,400 3,200 0 512,000 80 0 70 0 0 10 0 0 64,000
520 1,300 0 33,800 65 0 45 0 0 20 0 0 10,400
12,800 880 0 704,000 55 0 49 0 0 6 0 0 76,800
7,800 650 0 390,000 50 0 45 0 0 5 0 0 39,000
30,000 450 0 1,200,000 45 0 41 0 0 4 0 0 120,000
96,000 280 0 2,880,000 35 0 32 0 0 3 0 0 288,000
40,000 240 0 1,200,000 30 0 26 0 0 4 0 0 160,000
30,000 120 0 600,000 20 0 17 0 0 3 0 0 90,000
16,000 400 0 800,000 50 0 37 0 0 13 0 0 208,000
48,000 198 0 1,600,000 33 0 27 0 0 6 0 0 288,000
70,000 154 0 1,540,000 22 0 18 0 0 4 0 0 280,000
12,000 72 0 144,000 12 0 10 0 0 2 0 0 24,000
40,000 50 0 400,000 10 0 9 4 0 0 16 0 32,000
280,000 91 0 3,640,000 13 0 11 15 0 1 5 0 350,000
660,000 55 0 6,600,000 10 0 9 10 0 0 10 0 330,000
750,000 42 10 6,375,000 8 10 8 5 0 0 5 0 187,500
75,000 60 0 900,000 12 0 11 0 0 1 0 0 75,000
225,000 45 0 2,250,000 10 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 225,000
240,000 38 0 2,280,000 9 10 9 0 0 0 10 0 120,000
20,000 80 0 400,000 20 0 18 0 0 2 0 0 40,000
16,000 60 0 240,000 15 0 14 0 0 1 0 0 16,000
2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 l1 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700
Decrease.Decrease.
150,000 20 0 1,000,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 75,000
1,275,000 15 0 5,460,000 4 10 4 12 0 0 2 0 127,500
1,300,000 6 10 2,000,000 2 0 2 5 0 0 5 0 325,000
70,000 14 0 490,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 35,000
2,795,000 10 10 8,950,000 3 5 3 9 0 0 4 0 562,500
30,000 60,000 2 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 60,000
So the General Account is
2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 11 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700
2,825,000 10 10 9,010,000 3 3 3 7 6 0 4 6 622,500
5,500,520 32 5 43,491,800 7 18 7 9 3 0 8 9 2,401,200
The people being the first matter of power and wealth, by whose
labour and industry a nation must be gainers in the balance, their
increase or decrease must be carefully observed by any government
that designs to thrive; that is, their increase must be promoted by
good conduct and wholesome laws, and if they have been decreased by
war, or any other accident, the breach is to be made up as soon as
possible, for it is a maim in the body politic affecting all its
parts.
Almost all countries in the world have been more or less populous,
as liberty and property have been there well or ill secured. The
first constitution of Rome was no ill-founded government, a kingly
power limited by laws; and the people increased so fast, that, from
a small beginning, in the reign of their sixth king were they able
to send out an army of 80,000 men. And in the time of the
commonwealth, in that invasion which the Gauls made upon Italy, not
long before Hannibal came thither, they were grown so numerous, as
that their troops consisted of 700,000 foot and 70,000 horse; it is
true their allies were comprehended in this number, but the ordinary
people fit to bear arms being mustered in Rome and Campania,
amounted to 250,000 foot and 23,000 horse.
Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the rendering England
populous and strong than to have liberty upon a right footing, and
our legal constitution firmly preserved. A nation may be as well
called free under a limited kingship as in a commonwealth, and it is
to this good form of our government that we partly owe that doubling
of the people which has probably happened here in the 435 years last
past. And if the ambition of some, and the mercenary temper of
others, should bring us at any time to alter our constitution, and
to give up our ancient rights, we shall find our numbers diminish
visibly and fast. For liberty encourages procreation, and not only
keeps our own inhabitants among us, but invites strangers to come
and live under the shelter of our laws.
The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious help to enlarge
their city, which was by incorporating foreign cities and nations
into their commonwealth; but this way is not without its mischiefs.
For the strangers in Rome by degrees had grown so numerous, and to
have so great a vote in the councils, that the whole Government
began to totter, and decline from its old to its new inhabitants,
which Fabius the censor observing, he applied a remedy in time by
reducing all the new citizens into four tribes, that being
contracted into so narrow a space, they might not have so malignant
an influence upon the city.
An Act of general naturalisation would likewise probably increase
our numbers very fast, and repair what loss we may have suffered in
our people by the late war. It is a matter that has been very
warmly contended for by many good patriots; but peradventure it
carries also its danger with it, which perhaps would have the less
influence by this expedient, namely, if an Act of Parliament were
made, that no heads of families hereafter to be naturalised for the
first generation, should have votes in any of our elections. But as
the case stands, it seems against the nature of right government
that strangers (who may be spies, and who may have an interest
opposite to that of England, and who at best ever join in one link
of obsequiousness to the Ministers) should be suffered to
intermeddle in that important business of sending members to
Parliament. From their sons indeed there is less to fear, who by
birth and nature may come to have the same interest and inclinations
as the natives.
And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, to contract the
strangers into four tribes, might be reasonable where the affairs of
a whole empire were transacted by magistrates chosen in one city,
yet the same policy may not hold good in England; foreigners cannot
influence elections here by being dispersed about in the several
counties of the kingdom, where they can never come to have any
considerable strength. But some time or other they may endanger the
government by being suffered to remain, such vast numbers of them
here in London where they inhabit altogether, at least 30,000
persons in two quarters of the town, without intermarrying with the
English, or learning our language, by which means for several years
to come they are in a way still to continue foreigners, and perhaps
may have a foreign interest and foreign inclinations; to permit this
cannot be advisable or safe. It may therefore be proper to limit
any new Acts of naturalisation with such restrictions as may make
the accession of strangers not dangerous to the public.
An accession of strangers, well regulated, may add to our strength
and numbers; but then it must be composed of labouring men,
artificers, merchants, and other rich men, and not of foreign
soldiers, since such fright and drive away from a nation more people
than their troops can well consist of: for if it has been ever seen
that men abound most where there is most freedom (China excepted,
whose climate excels all others, and where the exercise of the
tyranny is mild and easy) it must follow that people will in time
desert those countries whose best flower is their liberties, if
those liberties are thought precarious or in danger. That foreign
soldiers are dangerous to liberty, we may produce examples from all
countries and all ages; but we shall instance only one, because it
is eminent above all the rest.
The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much use mercenary and
foreign troops; and when the peace was made between them and the
Romans, after a long dispute for the dominion of Sicily, they
brought their army home to be paid and disbanded, which Gesco, their
General, had the charge of embarking, who did order all his part
with great dexterity and wisdom. But the State of Carthage wanting
money to clear arrears, and satisfy the troops, was forced to keep
them up longer than was designed. The army consisted of Gauls,
Ligurians, Baleareans, and Greeks. At first they were insolent in
their quarters in Carthage, and were prevailed upon to remove to
Sicca, where they were to remain and expect their pay. There they
grew presently corrupted with ease and pleasure, and fell into
mutinies and disorder, and to making extravagant demands of pay and
gratuities; and in a rage, with their arms in their hands, they
marched 20,000 of them towards Carthage, encamping within fifteen
miles of the city; and chose Spendius and Matho, two profligate
wretches, for their leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was deputed
to them from the commonwealth. Afterwards they caused almost all
the Africans, their tributaries, to revolt; they grew in a short
time to be 70,000 strong; they fought several battles with Hanno and
Hamilcar Barcas. During these transactions, the mercenaries that
were in garrison in Sardinia mutinied likewise, murdering their
commander and all the Carthaginians; while Spendius and Matho, to
render their accomplices more desperate, put Gesco to a cruel death,
presuming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage itself. They met with
a shock indeed at Prion, where 40,000 of them were slaughtered; but
soon after this battle, in another they took one of the Carthaginian
generals prisoner, whom they fixed to a cross, crucifying thirty of
the principal senators round about him. Spendius and Matho were at
last taken, the one crucified and the other tormented to death: but
the war lasted three years and near four months with excessive
cruelty; in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, and
was often brought within a hair's-breadth of utter ruin.
If so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though assisted at that time
by Hiero, King of Syracuse, and by the Romans, ran the hazard of
losing their empire, city, and liberties, by the insurrection of a
handful of mercenaries, whose first strength was but 20,000 men; it
should be a warning to all free nations how they suffer armies so
composed to be among them, and it should frighten a wise State from
desiring such an increase of people as may be had by the bringing
over foreign soldiers.
Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over-large, tend to the
dispeopling of a country, of which our neighbour nation is a
sufficient proof, where in one of the best climates in Europe men
are wanting to till the ground. For children do not proceed from
the intemperate pleasures taken loosely and at random, but from a
regular way of living, where the father of the family desires to
rear up and provide for the offspring he shall beget.
Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid down as a fundamental
for increasing the numbers of its people; but there are other
polities thereunto conducing which no wise State has ever neglected.
No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, which may be
attributed chiefly to the wisdom of Moses their Lawgiver, in
contriving to promote the state of marriage.
The Romans had the same care, paying no respect to a man childless
by his own fault, and giving great immunities and privileges, both
in the city and provinces, to those who had such and such a number
of children. Encouragements of the like kind are also given in
France to such as enrich the commonwealth by a large issue.
But we in England have taken another course, laying a fine upon the
marriage bed, which seems small to those who only contemplate the
pomp and wealth round about them, and in their view; but they who
look into all the different ranks of men are well satisfied that
this duty on marriages and births is a very grievous burden upon the
poorer sort, whose numbers compose the strength and wealth of any
nation. This tax was introduced by the necessity of affairs. It is
difficult to say what may be the event of a new thing; but if we are
to take measures from past wisdom, which exempted prolific families
from public duties, we should not lay impositions upon those who
find it hard enough to maintain themselves. If this tax be such a
weight upon the poor as to discourage marriage and hinder
propagation, which seems the truth, no doubt it ought to be
abolished; and at a convenient time we ought to change it for some
other duty, if there were only this single reason, that it is so
directly opposite to the polity of all ages and all countries.
In order to have hands to carry on labour and manufactures, which
must make us gainers in the balance of trade, we ought not to deter,
but rather invite men to marry, which is to be done by privileges
and exemptions for such a number of children, and by denying certain
offices of trust and dignities to all unmarried persons; and where
it is once made a fashion among those of the better sort, it will
quickly obtain with the lower degree.
Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as authentic grounds as
perhaps the matter is capable of) lays down that the annual
marriages of England are about 41,000, which is one marriage out of
every 134 persons. Upon which, we observe, that this is not a due
proportion, considering how few of our adult males (in comparison
with other countries) perish by war or any other accident; from
whence may be inferred that our polity is some way or other
defective, or the marriages would bear a nearer proportion with the
gross number of our people; for which defect, if a remedy can be
found, there will be so much more strength added to the kingdom.
From the books of assessment on births, marriages, &c., by the
nearest view he can make, he divides the 5,500,000 people into
2,700,000 males and 2,800,000 females; from whence (considering the
females exceed the males in number, and considering that the men
marry later than women, and that many of the males are of necessity
absent in the wars, at sea, and upon other business) it follows that
a large proportion of the females remain unmarried, though at an
adult age, which is a dead loss to the nation, every birth being as
so much certain treasure, upon which account such laws must be for
the public good, as induce all men to marry whose circumstances
permit it.
From his division of the people it may be likewise observed, that
the near proportion there is between the males and females (which is
said to hold also in other places) is an argument (and the strongest
that can be produced) against polygamy, and the increase of mankind
which some think might be from thence expected; for if Nature had
intended to one man a plurality of wives, she would have ordered a
great many more female births than male, her designments being
always right and wise.
The securing the parish for bastard children is become so small a
punishment and so easily compounded, that it very much hinders
marriage. The Dutch compel men of all ranks to marry the woman whom
they have got with child, and perhaps it would tend to the further
peopling of England if the common people here, under such a certain
degree, were condemned by some new law to suffer the same penalty.
A country that makes provision to increase in inhabitants, whose
situation is good, and whose people have a genius adapted to trade,
will never fail to be gainers in the balance, provided the labour
and industry of their people be well managed and carefully directed.
The more any man contemplates these matters the more he will come to
be of opinion, that England is capable of being rendered one of the
strongest nations, and the richest spot of ground in Europe.
It is not extent of territory that makes a country powerful, but
numbers of men well employed, convenient ports, a good navy, and a
soil producing all sort of commodities. The materials for all this
we have, and so improvable, that if we did but second the gifts of
Nature with our own industry we should soon arrive to a pitch of
greatness that would put us at least upon an equal footing with any
of our neighbours.
If we had the complement of men our land can maintain and nourish;
if we had as much trade as our stock and knowledge in sea affairs is
capable of embracing; if we had such a naval strength as a trade so
extended would easily produce; and, if we had those stores and that
wealth which is the certain result of a large and well-governed
traffic, what human strength could hurt or invade us? On the
contrary, should we not be in a posture not only to resist but to
give the law to others?
Our neighbouring commonwealth has not in territory above 8,000,000
acres, and perhaps not much above 2,200,000 people, and yet what a
figure have they made in Europe for these last 100 years? What wars
have they maintained? What forces have they resisted? and to what a
height of power are they now come, and all by good order and wise
government?
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