Books: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
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Sir William Petty >> Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
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11. On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money in
Paris than London, if the public revenue (grossly speaking,
quadruple to that of England) be lodged there.
12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested
with the plague as London; now that at London the plague (which
between the years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every
fifteen years, at a medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth
of the people) hath not been known for the 21 years last past, and
there is a visible way by God's ordinary blessing to lessen the same
by two-thirds when it next appeareth.
13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London,
we say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris,
for four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families
of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if
there be 115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then
the proportion of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to
sixty-five, or as twenty-three to thirteen.
14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles
long and two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five
and a half square miles; but London is seven miles long, and one and
a quarter broad at a medium, which makes an area of near nine square
miles, which proportion of five and half to nine differs little from
that of thirteen to twenty-three.
15. Memorandum, that in Nero's time, as Monsieur Chivreau
reporteth, there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome; now
if there died three of ten then and there, being a hotter country,
as there dies two of ten at London, the number of people at that
time, was but a million, whereas at London they are now about
700,000. Moreover the ground within the walls of old Rome was a
circle but of three miles diameter, whose area is about seven square
miles, and the suburbs scarce as much more, in all about thirteen
square miles, whereas the built ground at London is about nine
square miles as aforesaid; which two sorts of proportions agree with
each other, and consequently old Rome seems but to have been half as
big again as the present London, which we offer to antiquaries.
THE THIRD ESSAY.
Proofs that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London
bills of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about
696,000, viz. -
I know but three ways of finding the same.
1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each.
2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the
proportion of those that live, to those that die.
3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential
years, in proportion to those that escape.
The First Way.
To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz. -
1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by
authentic report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who
died out of those houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686,
to be but one seventh part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth,
from whence I infer the whole housing of London A.D. 1666 to have
been 66,000, then finding the burials A.D. 1666 to be to those of
1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the number of housing A.D.
1686.
2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of
London, set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they
had found above 84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686,
or in four years more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more
(London doubling in forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be
92,400.
3. I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and
6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must
have been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover I found
that in Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307
houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate
there must have been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium
between Dublin and Bristol proportions 105,000 houses.
Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses
within the bills of mortality to be 105,315.
Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of
families in them, and first I thought that if there were three or
four families or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be
two families in one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which
supposition, the common opinion of several friends doth concur with
my own conjectures.
As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant's
observation in page --- of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of
London's families there be eight heads one with another, in families
of higher ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near live, according
to which proportions, I had upon another occasion pitched the medium
of heads in all the families of England to be six and one-third, but
quitting the fraction in this case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for
six.
To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of
double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same
by six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people.
The Second Way.
I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and
both healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684
they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is
23,212; moreover that the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those
A.D. 1685 were 14,730, wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials
23,212 by 30, supposing that one dies out of 30 at London, which
made the number of people 696,360 souls.
Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say
-
1. That Grant in the --- page of his fifth edition, affirmeth from
observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same
proportion.
2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons,
there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament
men, and that the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with
another, probably lived above 30 years each.
3. Grant, page --- hath shown that but about one of 20 die per
annum out of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout
thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion
of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the
number 30.
4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I
find that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507,
wherefore till I see another round number, grounded upon many
observations, nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in
multiplying our burials by 30 to find the number of the people, the
product being 696,360, and what we find by the families they are
695,076, as aforesaid.
The Third Way.
It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the
plague, but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons,
the quintuple whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year
1665, whereunto adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665
and 1686, the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other
two computations above mentioned.
Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be
put in its place.
Memorandum. That two or three hundred new houses would make a
contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134
already mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall
of about twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the
shipping at Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000
acres of land, and lay the foundation or designation of several vast
advantages to the owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to
the whole nation and government.
THE FOURTH ESSAY.
Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities of
Christendom undernamed, viz.:-
1. We have by the number of burials in healthful years, and by the
proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the
number of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London,
and the estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of
people in that city to be at a medium 695,718.
2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz.,
81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or
that there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors;
as also by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily
there; we have pitched upon the number of people there at a medium
to be 488,055, nor have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing
with Monsieur Auzout 6 heads for each of Moreri's 50,000 houses or
families.
3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number
of their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685.
4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special
account taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city
abounded with such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the
Turks.
5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all
125,000 souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by
Monsieur Auzout.
6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, the
medium whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls.
7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give
69,090 people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above
56,000 people. Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give
69,090 people, the 16,752 hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000;
but the medium of 56,000 and 40,000 is 48,000.
8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout's fancy of
80,000 souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing men
that Rouen is between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris,
and also that it is by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we
estimate, till farther light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000
people in it.
Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so
little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think
it just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign
trade, without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that
part of London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it.
All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and
candid, in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers
under-mentioned.
London 696,000
Paris 488,000
Amsterdam 187,000
Venice 134,000
Rome 125,000
Dublin 69,000
Bristol 48,000
Rouen 66,000
Observations on the said Eight Cities.
1. That the people of Paris being 488,000
Rome 125,000
Rouen 66,000
do make in all but 679,000
or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone.
2. That the people of the two English cities and emporiums--viz.,
of London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000--do make 744,000, or more
than
In Paris 488,000
Amsterdam 187,090
Rouen 66,000
Being in all 741,000
3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent
To Paris, which hath 488,000 souls.
Rouen 66,000
Lyons 100,000
Toulouse 90,000
In all 744,000
If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities
of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be
now at work upon that matter.
4. That the King of England's three cities, viz.
London 696,000 { Paris 488,000
Dublin 69,000 exceed { Amsterdam 187,000
Bristol 48,000 { Venice 134,000
In all 813,000 Being but 809,000
5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, Venice, and
Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., above 7
to 4.
Amsterdam 187,000 }
Venice 134,000 } 387,000
Rouen 66,000 } 2
774,000 London 696,000
6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most
considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest
emporium.
When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we
shall make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the
honour and profit of the King and Kingdom of England.
THE FIFTH ESSAY.
Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces.
Since the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland,
that what hath been said of the number of houses and people in
London is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London
would be the two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland. To which
is answered, that London is the two-thirds of all Holland, and more,
that province having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is
the two-thirds), nor above 800,000, as we have credibly and often
heard. For suppose Amsterdam hath--as we have elsewhere noted--
187,000, the seven next great cities at 30,000 each, one with
another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each 150,000, the ten
smallest at 6,000 each 60,000--in all, the twenty-eight walled
cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the dorps and villages
193,000, which is about one head for every four acres of land;
whereas in England there is eight acres for every head, without the
cities and market-towns.
Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven
heads in each--the medium between MM. Auzout's and Grant's
reckonings--the total of the people would be 812,000; or if we
reckon that there dies one out of thirty-four--the medium between
thirty and thirty-seven above mentioned--the total of the people
would be thirty-four times 23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between
which number and the above 812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding
800,000, the supposed number of Holland.
Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of
the world, I never found that in any country--not in China itself--
there was more than one man to every English acre of land: many
territories passing for well-peopled where there is but one man for
ten such acres. I found by measuring Holland and West Frisia (alias
North Holland) upon the best maps, that it contained but as many
such acres as London doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I
therefore venture to pronounce (till better informed) that the
people of London are as many as those of Holland, or at least above
two-thirds of the same, which is enough to disable the objection
above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up London from
696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have been given to that
purpose, and though the author of the excellent map of London, set
forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map
appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the houses of the
same to be but 85,000.
The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also
saith -
1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other
six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England,
and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say,
2,000,000 souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and
other trading cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that
in Amsterdam there are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth
against the register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223
houses and above 80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the
register alleged by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London,
with a tenth part of the same to be of families more than houses;
and probably will except against the register of 1,163 houses to be
in all England, that number giving, at six and one-third heads to
each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we remark as
follows, viz.:-
1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all
Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000,
wherefore London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of
all Holland by 46,000.
2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all
England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times
488,000; and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris,
there must die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks
that there dies one out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in
every house of Paris mentioned in the register, but there must be
scarce two heads in every house of England, all which we think fit
to be reconsidered.
I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is,
that these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for
that it is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it
might as well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the
Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the
same number, or 800,000 more, or that all the King of England's
subjects in Europe are but 2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that
the subjects of the seven united provinces are 4,000,000. To which
we answer that the subjects of the said seven provinces are, by this
objector's own showing, but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000
souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as afore hath been proved, and
we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 people, and that
Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey,
hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, in all
9,800,000; whereas by the objector's doctrine, if the seven
provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of England's territories
should have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000,
whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross
as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon.
To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that
they would prove -
1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and
cities thereof, hath more people than London alone.
2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all
Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better
housing, and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that
King James the Second came to the empire thereof.
OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.
Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, and
forming part of "An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a
People gainers in the Balance of Trade." Published in 1699.
The writer of these papers has seen the natural and political
observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England
by Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The
calculations therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps
to be relied upon than anything that has been ever done of the like
kind. This skilful and laborious gentleman has taken the right
course to form his several schemes about the numbers of the people,
for besides many different ways of working, he has very carefully
inspected the poll-books, and the distinctions made by those acts,
and the produce in many of the respective polls, going everywhere by
reasonable and discreet mediums: besides which pains, he has made
observations of the very facts in particular towns and places, from
which he has been able to judge and conclude more safely of others,
so that he seems to have looked further into this mystery than any
other person.
With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his
computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before
us.
He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony
or colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people
(which seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought
over between the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or
900 years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth
of Christ, at which time the world might have about 1,000,000
families, and 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people.
From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of
increase -
That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before
Christ's time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at
Christ's birth about 400,000.
That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain
somewhat above 2,000,000.
That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it
might contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number:
so that the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years
last past.
That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years
to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about
11,000,000 people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of
acres, there will be then about three acres and a half per head.
That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last
preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may
have been and in all probability may be, according to the following
scheme:-
Anno Number of Increase every
Domini. people. hundred years.
1300 2,800,000
1400 3,300,000 440,000.
1500 3,840,000 540,000.
1600 4,620,000 780,000.
1700 5,500,000 880,000.
1800 6,420,000 920,000.
1900 7,350,000 930,000.
2000 8,280,000 930,000.
2100 9,205,000 925,000.
2200 10,115,000 910,000.
2300 11,000,000 885,000.
Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000
people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding
hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000
souls per annum.
But whereas the yearly births of the
kingdom are about 1 in 28.95, or 190,000 souls.
And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls.
Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls.
It is to be noted-- Per ann.
1. That the allowance for
plagues and great mortalities
may come to at a medium 4,000
2. Foreign or civil wars at a
medium 3,500
3. The sea constantly employing 11,000 per annum.
about 40,000, may precipitate 2,500
the death of about
4. The plantations (over and above
the accession of foreigners) 1,000
may carry away
Whereby the net annual increase may
be but 9,000 souls.
That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of
the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned
abatements.
The country increases annually
by procreation 20,000 souls.
The cities and towns, exclusive
of London, by procreation 2,000 souls.
But London and the bills of
mortality decrease annually 2,000 souls.
So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it
from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum
for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the
kingdom's net increase.
Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages,
births, and burials, and the collectors' returns thereupon, and by
the parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages,
births, and burials are according to the following scheme
Vide Scheme A.
Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there
are 71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78
marriages in towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London,
producing 376 children.
Whereby it follows -
1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than
in the country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of
breeders, is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great
towns are more prolific than the country.
2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived as
those in the country, London would increase in people much faster
pro rata than the country.
3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer
children than the country marriages seem to be -
(1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries.
(2) From a greater luxury and intemperance.
(3) From a greater intentness on business.
(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke.
(5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives.
(6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the
country.
He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the
said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and
vagrants) appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and
burials, to bear the following proportions in relation to males and
females, and other distinctions of the people, viz.:-
SCHEMA A
People Annual Marriages
Producing
children
In all each
530,000 London and bills of mortality 1 in 106 5,000 4.0
870,000 The cities and market towns 1 in 128 6,800 4.5
4,100,000 The villages and hamlets 1 in 141 29,200 4.8
5,500,000 1 in 134 41,000
4.64
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