Books: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
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Sir William Petty >> Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
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A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER.
Whereas you complain that these observations make no sufficient
bulk, I could answer you that I wish the bulk of all books were
less; but do nevertheless comply with you in adding what follows,
viz.:
1. That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some having in
them above 600 families, and others under thirty.
2. That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 families; the
middling parishes of London containing 120 families; according to
which rate there should be about thirty-three parishes in Dublin.
3. It is said that there are 84,000 houses or families in London,
which is twenty-one times more than are in Dublin, and yet the
births and burials of London are but twelve times those of Dublin,
which shows that the inhabitants of Dublin are more crowded and
straitened in their housing than those of London; and consequently
that to increase the buildings of Dublin will make that city more
conformable to London.
4. I shall also add some reasons for altering the present forms of
the Dublin bills of mortality, according to what hath been here
recommended--viz.:
1. We give the distinctions of males and females in the births
only; for that the burials must, at one time or another, be in the
same proportion with the births.
2. We do in the weekly and quarterly bills propose that notice be
taken in the burials of what numbers die above sixty and seventy,
and what under sixteen, six, and two years old, foreseeing good uses
to be made of that distinction.
3. We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties to about twenty-
four, being such as may be discerned by common sense, and without
art, conceiving that more will but perplex and imbroil the account.
And in the quarterly bills we reduce the diseases to three heads--
viz., contagious, acute, and chronical, applying this distinction to
parishes, in order to know how the different situation, soil, and
way of living in each parish doth dispose men to each of the said
three species; and in the weekly bills we take notice not only of
the plague, but of the other contagious diseases in each parish,
that strangers and fearful persons may thereby know how to dispose
of themselves.
4. We mention the number of the people, as the fundamental term in
all our proportions; and without which all the rest will be almost
fruitless.
5. We mention the number of marriages made in every quarter, and in
every year, as also the proportion which married persons bear to the
whole, expecting in such observations to read the improvement of the
nation.
6. As for religions, we reduce them to three--viz.: (1) those who
have the Pope of Rome for their head; (2) who are governed by the
laws of their country; (3) those who rely respectively upon their
own private judgments. Now, whether these distinctions should be
taken notice of or not, we do but faintly recommend, seeing many
reasons pro and con for the same; and, therefore, although we have
mentioned it as a matter fit to be considered, yet we humbly leave
it to authority.
TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC,
Concerning the People, Housing, Hospitals, &c., of London and Paris.
TO THE KING'S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY.
I do presume, in a very small paper, to show your Majesty that your
City of London seems more considerable than the two best cities of
the French monarchy, and for aught I can find, greater than any
other of the universe, which because I can say without flattery, and
by such demonstration as your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray
your Majesty to accept from
Your Majesty's
Most humble, loyal, and obedient subject,
WILLIAM PETTY.
AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC
Tending to prove that London hath more people and housing than the
cities of Paris and Rouen put together, and is also more
considerable in several other respects.
1. The medium of the burials at London in the three last years--
viz., 1683, 1684, and 1685, wherein there was no extraordinary
sickness, and wherein the christenings do correspond in their
ordinary proportions with the burials and christenings of each year
one with another, was 22,337, and the like medium of burials for the
three last Paris bills we could procure--viz., for the years 1682,
1683, and 1684 (whereof the last as appears by the christenings to
have been very sickly), is 19,887.
2. The city of Bristol in England appears to be by good estimate of
its trade and customs as great as Rouen in France, and the city of
Dublin in Ireland appears to have more chimneys than Bristol, and
consequently more people, and the burials in Dublin were, A.D. 1682
(being a sickly year) but 2,263.
3. Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being added to the
burials of Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being 2,263, makes
but 22,150, whereas the burials of London were 187 more, or 22,337,
or as about 6 to 7.
4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in L'Hotel
Dieu in Paris (being above 3,000), as hath been elsewhere shown, or
any part thereof, should be subtracted out of the Paris burials
aforementioned, then our assertion will be stronger, and more
proportionable to what follows concerning the housing of those
cities, viz.:
5. There were burnt at London, A.D. 1666, above 13,000 houses,
which being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of
houses in the said year were above 65,000; and whereas the ordinary
burials of London have increased between the years 1666 and 1686,
above one-third the total of the houses at London, A.D. 1686, must
be about 87,000, which A.D. 1682, appeared by account to have been
84,000.
6. Monsieur Moreri, the great French author of the late
geographical dictionaries, who makes Paris the greatest city in the
world, doth reckon but 50,000 houses in the same, and other authors
and knowing men much less; nor are there full 7,000 houses in the
city of Dublin, so as if the 50,000 houses of Paris, and the 7,000
houses in the city of Dublin were added together, the total is but
57,000 houses, whereas those of London are 87,000 as aforesaid, or
as 6 to 9.
7. As for the shipping and foreign commerce of London, the common
sense of all men doth judge it to be far greater than that of Paris
and Rouen put together.
8. As to the wealth and gain accruing to the inhabitants of London
and Paris by law-suits (or La chicane) I only say that the courts of
London extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven millions of
people, whereas those of Paris do not extend near so far. Moreover,
there is no palpable conspicuous argument at Paris for the number
and wealth of lawyers like the buildings and chambers in the two
Temples, Lincoln's Inn, Gray's Inn, Doctors' Commons, and the seven
other inns in which are chimneys, which are to be seen at London,
besides many lodgings, halls, and offices, relating to the same.
9. As to the plentiful and easy living of the people we say,
(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, being as about 6
to 7, and the housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we infer that the
people do not live at London so close and crowded as at Paris, but
can afford themselves more room and liberty.
(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and more desirable than
those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris there die two out of
fifteen, whereas at London there die out of the worst scarce 2 out
of 16, and yet but a fiftieth part of the whole die out of the
hospitals at London, and two-fifths, or twenty times that proportion
die out of the Paris hospitals which are of the same kind; that is
to say, the number of those at London, who choose to lie sick in
hospitals rather than in their own houses, are to the like people of
Paris as one to twenty; which shows the greater poverty or want of
means in the people of Paris than those of London.
(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying scarce two of
sixteen out of the London hospitals, and about two of fifteen in the
best of Paris, to say nothing of L'Hotel Dieu, that either the
physicians and chirurgeons of London are better than those of Paris,
or that the air of London is more wholesome.
10. As for the other great cities of the world, if Paris were the
greatest we need say no more in behalf of London. As for Pekin in
China, we have no account fit to reason upon; nor is there anything
in the description of the two late voyages of the Chinese emperor
from that city into East and West Tartary, in the years 1682 and
1683, which can make us recant what we have said concerning London.
As for Delhi and Agra, belonging to the Mogul, we find nothing
against our position, but much to show the vast numbers which attend
that emperor in his business and pleasures.
11. We shall conclude with Constantinople and Grand Cairo; as for
Constantinople it hath been said by one who endeavoured to show the
greatness of that city, and the greatness of the plague which raged
in it, that there died 1,500 per diem, without other circumstances;
to which we answer, that in the year 1665 there died in London 1,200
per diem, and it hath been well proved that the Plague of London
never carried away above one-fifth of the people, whereas it is
commonly believed that in Constantinople, and other eastern cities,
and even in Italy and Spain, that the plague takes away two-fifths,
one half, or more; wherefore where 1,200 is but one-fifth of the
people it is probable that the number was greater, than where 1,500
was two-fifths or one half, &c.
12. As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 73,000 died in ten
weeks, or 1,000 per diem, where note, that at Grand Cairo the plague
comes and goes away suddenly, and that the plague takes away two or
three-fifths parts of the people as aforesaid; so as 73,000 was
probably the number of those that died of the plague in one whole
year at Grand Cairo, whereas at London, A.D. 1665, 97,000 were
brought to account to have died in that year. Wherefore it is
certain, that that city wherein 97,000 was but one-fifth of the
people, the number was greater than where 73,000 was two-fifths or
the half.
We therefore conclude, that London hath more people, housing,
shipping, and wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for
aught yet appears, is more considerable than any other city in the
universe, which was propounded to be proved.
AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC
Tending to prove that in the hospital called L'Hotel Dieu at Paris,
there die above 3,000 per annum by reason of ill accommodation.
1. It appears that A.D. 1678 there entered into the Hospital of La
Charite 2,647 souls, of which there died there within the said year
338, which is above an eighth part of the said 2,647; and that in
the same year there entered into L'Hotel Dieu 21,491, and that there
died out of that number 5,630, which is above one quarter, so as
about half the said 5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for want
of as good usage and accommodation as might have been had at La
Charite.
2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La Charite 3,118,
of which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in the
same year there entered into L'Hotel Dieu 28,635, of which there
died 8,397; and in both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being very
different in their degrees of mortality) there entered into L'Hotel
Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491--in all 50,126, the medium whereof is 25,063;
and there died out of the same in the said two years, 5,630 and
8,397--in all 14,027, the medium whereof is 7,013.
3. There entered in the said years into La Charite 2,647 and 3,118,
in all 5,765, the medium whereof is 2,882, whereof there died 338
and 452, in all 790, the medium whereof is 395.
4. Now, if there died out of L'Hotel Dieu 7,013 per annum, and that
the proportion of those that died out of L'Hotel Dieu is double to
those that died out of La Charite (as by the above numbers it
appears to be near thereabouts), then it follows that half the said
numbers of 7,013, being 3,506, did not die by natural necessity, but
by the evil administration of that hospital.
5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very strange, and
rather to be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth; but
considering the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more
reconciled to the belief of it, viz.:-
(a.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, there was sent
out and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of
the said hospital 252. Moreover, there were sent out and cured out
of St. Thomas's Hospital 1,523, and buried, 209--that is to say,
there were cured in both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both
hospitals 461, and consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which
number the 461 buried is less than an eighth part; whereas at La
Charite the part that died was more than an eighth part; which shows
that out of the most poor and wretched hospitals of London there
died fewer in proportion than out of the best in Paris.
(b.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there died out of La
Charite at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables,
making in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew's and St.
Thomas's Hospitals, London, there died at a medium but 461, of which
Les Incurables are part; which shows that although there be more
people in London than in Paris, yet there went at London not so many
people to hospitals as there did at Paris, although the poorest
hospitals at London were better than the best at Paris; which shows
that the poorest people at London have better accommodation in their
own houses than the best hospital of Paris affordeth.
6. Having proved that there die about 3,506 persons at Paris
unnecessarily, to the damage of France, we come next to compute the
value of the said damage, and of the remedy thereof, as follows,
viz., the value of the said 3,506 at 60 livres sterling per head,
being about the value of Argier slaves (which is less than the
intrinsic value of people at Paris), the whole loss of the subjects
of France in that hospital seems to be 60 times 3,506 livres
sterling per annum, viz., 210,360 livres sterling, equivalent to
about 2,524,320 French livres.
7. It hath appeared that there came into L'Hotel Dieu at a medium
25,063 per annum, or 2,089 per mensem, and that the whole stock of
what remained in the precedent months is at a medium about 2,108 (as
may appear by the third line of the Table No. 5, which shall be
shortly published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 for the
sickly year 1679, whereunto 1,806 being added as the medium of
months for the year 1678, makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the
2,108 above mentioned; which number being added to the 2,089 which
entered each month, makes 4,197 for the number of sick which are
supposed to be always in L'Hotel Dieu one time with another.
8. Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each of the said 4,197
sick persons were added to the present ordinary expense of that
hospital (amounting to an addition of 251,820 livres), it seems that
so many lives might be saved as are worth above ten times that sum,
and this by doing a manifest deed of charity to mankind.
Memorandum.--That A.D. 1685, the burials of London were 23,222, and
those of Amsterdam 6,245; from whence, and the difference of air, it
is probable that the people of London are quadruple to those of
Amsterdam.
OBSERVATIONS UPON THE CITIES OF LONDON AND ROME
1. That before the year 1630 the christenings at London exceeded
the burials of the same, but about the year 1655 they were scarce
half; and now about two-thirds.
2. Before the restoration of monarchy in England, A.D. 1660, the
people of Paris were more than those of London and Dublin put
together, whereas now, the people of London are more than those of
Paris and Rome, or of Paris and Rouen.
3. A.D. 1665 one fifth part of the then people of London, or
97,000, died of the plague, and in the next year, 1666, 13,000
houses, or one fifth part of all the housing of London, were burnt
also.
4. At the birth of Christ old Rome was the greatest city of the
world, and London the greatest at the coronation of King James II.,
and near six times as great as the present Rome, wherein are 119,000
souls besides Jews.
5. In the years of King Charles II.'s death, and King James II.'s
coronation (which were neither of them remarkable for extraordinary
sickliness or healthfulness) the burials did wonderfully agree,
viz., A.D. 1684, they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685, they were 23,222,
the medium whereof is 23,212. And the christenings did very
wonderfully agree also, having been A.D. 1684, 14,702, and A.D.
1685, 14,732, the medium whereof is 14,716, which consistence was
never seen before, the said number of 23,212 burials making the
people of London to be 696,360, at the rate of one dying per annum
out of 30.
6. Since the great Fire of London, A.D. 1666, about 7 parts of 15
of the present vast city hath been new built, and is with its people
increased near one half, and become equal to Paris and Rome put
together, the one being the seat of the great French Monarchy, and
the other of the Papacy.
FIVE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC
I. Objections from the city of Ray in Persia, and from Monsier
Auzout, against two former essays, answered, and that London hath as
many people as Paris, Rome, and Rouen put together.
II. A comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars.
III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 parishes named in the
bills of mortality, there live about 696,000 people.
IV. An estimate of the people in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Venice,
Rome, Dublin, Bristol, and Rouen, with several observations upon the
same.
V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the Seven United Provinces.
TO THE KING'S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY
Sir,
Your Majesty having graciously accepted my two late essays, about
the cities and hospitals of London and Paris, as also my
observations on Rome and Rouen; I do (after six months' waiting for
what may be said against my several doctrines by the able men of
Europe) humbly present your Majesty with a few other papers upon the
same subject, to strengthen, explain, and enlarge the former; hoping
by such real arguments, better to praise and magnify your Majesty,
than by any other the most specious words and eulogies that can be
imagined by
Your Majesty's
Most humble, loyal
And obedient subject,
WILLIAM PETTY.
THE FIRST ESSAY.
It could not be expected that an assertion of London's being bigger
than Paris and Rouen, or than Paris and Rome put together, and
bigger than any city of the world, should escape uncontradicted; and
'tis also expected that I (if continuing in the same persuasion),
should make some reply to those contradictions. In order whereunto,
I begin with the ingenious author of the "Republique des Lettres,"
who saith that Rey in Persia is far bigger than London, for that in
the sixth century of Christianity (I suppose, A.D. 550 the middle of
that century), it had 15,000, or rather 44,000 mosques or Mahometan
temples; to which I reply, that I hope this objector is but in jest,
for that Mahomet was not born till about the year 570, and had no
mosques till about 50 years after.
In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsieur Auzout's
"Letters from Rome," who is content that London, Westminster, and
Southwark may have as many people as Paris and its suburbs; and but
faintly denieth, that all the housing within the bills may have
almost as many people as Paris and Rouen, but saith that several
parishes inserted into these bills are distant from, and not
contiguous with London, and that Grant so understood it.
To which (as his main if not his only objection) we answer: --(l)
That the London bills appear in Grant's book to have been always,
since the year 1636; as they now are; (2) That about fifty years
since, three or four parishes, formerly somewhat distant, were
joined by interposed buildings to the bulk of the city, and
therefore then inserted into the bills; (3) That since fifty years
the whole buildings being more than double have perfected that
union, so as there is no house within the said bills from which one
may not call to some other house; (4) All this is confirmed by
authority of the king and city, and the custom of fifty years; (5)
That there are but three parishes under any colour of this exception
which are scarce one-fifty-second part of the whole.
Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout's large letter,
dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made remarks upon every
paragraph thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like a war
against a worthy person with whom I intended none, whereas, in
truth, it was but a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have
chosen the shorter and softer way of answering Monsieur Auzout as
followeth, viz.:-
Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, Rouen,
and Rome, viz.:-
Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are 23,223
houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand families, and
therefore supposing three and a half families to live in every of
the said houses, one with another, the number of families will be
81,280; and Monsier Auzout also allowing six heads to each family,
the utmost number of people in Paris, according to that opinion,
will be 487,680.
The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier Auzout to
be 19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out of the
L'Hotel Dieu; wherefore deducting the said last number out of the
former, the net standard for burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as
the number of people there, allowing but one to die out of thirty
(which is more advantageous to Paris than Monsieur Auzout's opinion
of one to die out of twenty-five) the number of people at Paris will
be 491,430 more than by Monsier Auzout's own last-mentioned account
491,430.
And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055.
The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, multiplied
by thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of the people
there will be 696,360.
The number of houses at London appears by the register to be
105,315, whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, as
the least number of double families that can be supposed in London,
the total of families will be 115,840, and allowing six heads for
each family, as was done for Paris, the total of the people at
London will be 695,076.
The medium of the two last London accounts is 695,718.
So, as the people of Paris, according to the above account, is
488,055.
Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout's utmost demands 80,000.
Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a former letter
125,000.
Total 693,055.
So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome
by 2,663.
Memorandum.--That the parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney,
for which only there is any colour of non-contiguity, is not one-
fifty-second part of what is contained in the bills of mortality,
and consequently London, without the said three parishes, hath more
people than Paris and Rouen put together, by 114,284.
Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city
of France contains.
THE SECOND ESSAY.
As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and
enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as
followeth, viz.:-
1. That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at Paris where so
many die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion
out of the hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better
than the best of Paris.
2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000
street-doors, which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living
than at London.
3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the
burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little
equipage.
4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seine,
and its waters better and more wholesome; and the bridge of London
is the most considerable of all Europe.
5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is incomparably greater
than that at Paris and Rouen.
6. The lawyers' chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in them, and
are worth 140,000 pounds sterling, or 3,000,000 of French livres,
besides the dwellings of their families elsewhere.
7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of
sixteen die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above two of
fifteen out of the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one-
fifth part above and below the medium, but at London not above one-
twelfth, so as the intemperies of the air at Paris is far greater
than at London.
8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a
wholesome sulphurous bitumen.
9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are
cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty.
10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that
nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul's was, and is like to be,
nor so beautiful as Henry the Seventh's chapel.
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