Books: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
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Sir William Petty >> Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
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I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make
much difference in this particular; for impotents (which are but one
in about 600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those who are
unable to work, through the evil education of their parents, ought
(for aught I know) to be maintained by their nearest kindred, as a
just punishment upon them. 3. And those who cannot find work
(though able and willing to perform it), by reason of the unequal
application of hands to lands, ought to be provided for by the
magistrate and landlord till that can be done; for there need be no
beggars in countries where there are many acres of unimproved
improvable land to every head, as there are in England. As for
thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the same cause;
for it is against Nature that any man should venture his life, limb,
or liberty, for a wretched livelihood, whereas moderate labour will
produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas More, in the first
part of his "Utopia."
10. As to the propagation and improvement of useful learning.
The same may be said concerning it as was above said concerning
manufactures, and the arts of delight and ornaments; for in the
great vast city there can be no so odd a conceit or design whereunto
some assistance may not be found, which in the thin, scattered way
of habitation may not be.
11. As for the increase of people by generation. I see no great
difference from either of the two states, for the same may be
hindered or promoted in either from the same causes.
12. As to the plague.
It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth
in London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last
hundred years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five
great plagues--viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it
is also to be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill
one-fifth part of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of
England do double but in 360 years, then the annual increase of the
same is but 20,000, and in twenty years 400,000. But if in the city
of London there should be 2,000,000 of people (as there will be
about sixty years hence), then the plague (killing one-fifth of
them, namely, 400,000 once in twenty years) will destroy as many in
one year as the whole nation can re-furnish in twenty; and
consequently the people of the nation shall never increase. But if
the people of London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of
our two extravagant suppositions is premised), then the people of
the whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum. So as if
people be worth 70 pounds per head (as hath elsewhere been shown),
then the said greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and
the whole nation of 1,400,000 pounds per annum, and so pro rata for
a greater or lesser number; wherefore to determine which of the two
states is best--that is to say, towards which of the said two states
authority should bend the present state, a just balance ought to be
made between the disadvantages from the plague, with the advantages
accruing from the other particulars above mentioned, unto which
balance a more exact account of the people, and a better rule for
the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have here given,
or are yet able to lay down.
POSTSCRIPT.
It was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning the growth of
the city of London to thrust in considerations of the time when the
whole world will be fully peopled; and how to justify the Scriptures
concerning the number of people mentioned in them; and concerning
the number of the quick and the dead that may rise at the last day,
&c. Nevertheless, since some friends, liking the said digressions
and impertinences (perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired
that the same might be explained and made out, I, therefore, say as
followeth:-
1. If the number of acres in the habitable part of the earth be
under 50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are more than the
said number of acres will feed (few or no countries being so fully
peopled), and for that in six doublings (which will be in 2,000
years) the present 320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000.
2. That the number of all those who have died since the Flood is
the sum of all the products made by multiplying the number of the
doubling periods mentioned in the first column of the last table, by
the number of people respectively affixed to them in the third
column of the same table, the said sum being divided by 40 (one
dying out of 40 per annum out of the whole mass of mankind), which
quotient is 12,570,000,000; whereunto may be added, for those that
died before the Flood, enough to make the last-mentioned number
20,000,000,000, as the full number of all that died from the
beginning of the world to the year 1682, unto which, if 320,000,000,
the number of those who are now alive, be added, the total of the
quick and the dead will amount but unto one fifth part of the graves
which the surface of Ireland will afford, without ever putting two
bodies into any one grave; for there be in Ireland 28,000 square
English miles, each whereof will afford about 4,000,000 of graves,
and consequently above 114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five
times the number of the quick and the dead which should arise at the
last day, in case the same had been in the year 1682.
3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many graves in
Ireland as are sufficient for all that ever died, and if the earth
of one grave weigh five times as much as the body interred therein,
then a turf less than a foot thick pared off from a fifth part of
the surface of Ireland, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all
the bodies that ever were buried, and may serve as well for that
purpose as the two mountains aforementioned in the body of this
discourse. From all which it is plain how madly they were mistaken
who did so petulantly vilify what the Holy Scriptures have
delivered.
FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS; Or, Accounts of the
Houses, Hearths, Baptisms, and Burials in that City.
THE STATIONER TO THE READER.
I have not thought fit to make any alteration of the first edition,
but have only added a new table, with observation upon it, placing
the same in the front of what was before, which, perhaps, might have
been as well placed after the like table at the eighth page of the
first edition.
DUBLIN, 1682.
Parishes Houses Fireplaces Baptised Buried
St. James's 272 836 }
St. Katherine's 540 2,198 } 122 306
St. Nicholas }
Without and } 1,064 4,082 145 414
St. Patrick's }
St. Bridget's 395 1,903 68 149
St. Audone's 276 1,510 56 164
St. Michael's 174 884 34 50
St. John's 302 1,636 74 101
St. Nicholas }
Within and } 153 902 26 52
Christ Church Lib. }
St. Warburgh's 240 1,638 45 105
St. Michan's 938 3,516 124 389
St. Andrew's 864 3,638 131 300
St. Kevin's 554 2,120 } 87 233
Donnybrook 253 506 }
6,025 25,369 912 2,263
The table hath been made for the year 1682, wherein is to be noted -
1. That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 3,850 are, A.D. 1682,
6,025; but whether this difference is caused by the real increase of
housing, or by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is left to
consideration. For the burials of people have increased but from
1,696 to 2,263, according to which proportion the 3,850 houses A.D.
1671 should A.D. 1682 have been but 5,143, wherefore some fault may
be suspected as aforesaid, when farming the hearth-money was in
agitation.
2. The hearths have increased according to the burials, and one-
third of the said increase more, viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were
1,696, the one-third whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259,
which is near the number of burials A.D. 1682. But the hearths A.D.
1671 were 17,500, whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but
23,333; whereas the whole hearths A.D. 1682 were 25,369, viz., one-
third and better of the said 5,833 more.
3. The housing were A.D. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had
increased A.D. 1682 but according to the burials, they had been but
5,143, or, according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas
they appear 6,025, increasing double to the hearths. So as it is
likely there hath been some error in the said account of the
housing, unless the new housing be very small, and have but one
chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part of them are untenanted. On
the other hand, it is more likely that when 1,696 died per annum
there were near 6,000; for 6,000 houses at 8 inhabitants per house,
would make the number of the people to be 48,000, and the number of
1,696 that died according to the rule of one out of 30, would have
made the number of inhabitants about 50,000: for which reason I
continue to believe there was some error in the account of 3,850
houses as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from
experience to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have
increased from 3,850 to 6,025.
Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short,
because that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be
but 48,200; whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according
to the aforementioned rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number
of people to be 67,890, the medium betwixt which number and 48,200
is 58,045, which is the best estimate I can make of that matter,
which I hope authority will ere long rectify, by direct and exact
inquiries.
4. As to the births, we say that A.D. 1640, 1641, and 1642, at
London, just before the troubles in religion began, the births were
five-sixths of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness
of families in London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and
not for want of registering. Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of
2,263, which is 377, there remains 1,886 for the probable number of
births in Dublin for the year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented
to have been christened in that year, though 1,023 were christened
A.D. 1671, when there died but 1,696, which decreasing of the
christening, and increasing of the burials, shows the increase of
non-registering in the legal books, which must be the increase of
Roman Catholics at Dublin.
The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of
Dublin are rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who
do not register their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974: but
of dissenters, none have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose
numbers have increased from about two to five in the said years.
The exacter knowledge whereof may also be better had from direct
inquiries.
OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND THE
STATE OF THAT CITY.
The observations upon the London bills of mortality have been a new
light to the world, and the like observation upon those of Dublin
may serve as snuffers to make the same candle burn clearer.
The London observations flowed from bills regularly kept for near
one hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six straggling
London bills, out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the
families and hearths in each parish of Dublin, which are all
digested into the one table or sheet annexed, consisting of three
parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed the A, B, C of public economy,
and even of that policy which tends to peace and plenty.
Observations upon the Table A.
1. The total of the burials in London (for the said six straggling
years mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof the medium or
sixth part is 20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may
appear by the late bills of that city.
2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium or sixth
part whereof is 12,280, which is about five-eighth parts of the
burials, and shows that London would in time decrease quite away,
were it not supplied out of the country, where are about five births
for four burials, the proportion of breeders in the country being
greater than in the city.
3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years were 9,865, the
sixth part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about the twelfth
part of the London burials, and about a fifth part over. So as the
people of London do hereby seem to be above twelve times as many as
those of Dublin.
4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the sixth part
or medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about five-eighth parts of
the 1,644 burials, which shows that the proportion between burials
and births are alike at London and Dublin, and that the accounts are
kept alike, and consequently are likely to be true, there being no
confederacy for that purpose; which, if they be true, we then say -
5. That the births are the best way (till the accounts of the
people shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the increase
and decrease of people, that of burials being subject to more
contingencies and variety of causes.
6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, and that the
births (as has been shown) are as five to eight, then eight-fifths
of the births is the number of the burials, where the year was not
considerable for extraordinary sickness or salubrity, and is the
rule whereby to measure the same. As for example, the medium of
births in Dublin was 1,026, the eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but
the real burials were 1,644; so as in the said years they differed
little from the 1,641, which was the standard of health, and
consequently the years 1680, 1674, and 1668 were sickly years, more
or less, as they exceeded the said number, 1,641; and the rest were
healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the same
number. But the city was more or less populous, as the births
differed from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the years 1680,
1679, 1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference in births
are very occult and uncertain.
7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for London.
8. It hath already been observed by the London bills that there are
more males than females. It is to be further noted, that in these
six London bills, also, there is not one instance either in the
births or burials to the contrary.
9. It hath been formerly observed that in the years wherein most
die fewest are born, and vice versa. The same may be further
observed in males and females, viz., when fewest males are born then
most die: for here the males died as twelve to eleven, which is
above the mean proportion of fourteen to thirteen, but were born but
as nineteen to eighteen, which is below the same.
Observations upon the Table B.
1. From the Table B it appears that the medium of the fifteen
years' burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, whereas the medium of the
other six years in the Table A was 1,644, and that the medium of the
fifteen years' births (being in all 14,765) is 984, whereas the
medium of the said other six years was 1,026. That is to say, there
were both fewer births and burials in these fifteen years than in
the other six years, which is a probable sign that at a medium there
were fewer people also.
2. The medium of births for the fifteen years being 984, whereof
eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the standard of health for the said
fifteen years; and the triple of the said 1,576 being 4,728, is the
standard for each of the ternaries of the fifteen years within the
said table.
3. That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each ternary the
standard of people's increase and decrease from the year 1666 to
1680 inclusive, viz., the people increased in the second ternary,
and decreased from the same in the third and fourth ternaries, but
re-increased in the fifth ternary beyond any other.
4. That the last ternary was withal very healthful, the burials
being but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, the standard.
5. That according to this proportion of increase, the housing of
Dublin have probably increased also.
Observations upon the Table C.
1. First, from the Table C it appears, 1. That the housing of
Dublin is such, as that there are not five hearths in each house one
with another, but nearer five than four.
2. That in St. Warburgh's parish are near six hearths to a house.
In St. John's five. In St. Michael's above five. In St. Nicholas
Within above six. In Christ Church above seven. In St. James's and
St. Katherine's, and in St. Michan's, not four. In St. Kevin's
about four.
3. That in St. James's, St. Michan's, St. Bride's, St. Warburgh's,
St. Andrew's, St. Michael's, and St. Patrick's, all the christenings
were but 550, and the burials 1,055, viz., near double; and that in
the rest of the parishes the christenings were five, and the burials
seven, viz., as 457 to 634. Now whether the cause of this
difference was negligence in accounts, or the greaterness of the
families, &c., is worth inquiring.
4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these parishes
ought to stand, some having most families, some most hearths, some
most births, and others most burials. Some parishes exceeding the
rest in two, others in three of the said four particulars, but none
in all four. Wherefore this table ranketh them according to the
plurality of the said four particulars wherein each excelleth the
other.
5. The London observations reckon eight heads in each family,
according to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000
families of Dublin, which is but half of what most men imagine, of
which but about one sixth part are able to bear arms, besides the
royal regiment.
6. Without the knowledge of the true number of people, as a
principle, the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of births
and burials is impaired; wherefore by laborious conjectures and
calculations to deduce the number of people from the births and
burials, may be ingenious, but very preposterous.
7. If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, then ten men
in one week (at the charge of about 5 pounds surveying eight
families in an hour) may directly, and without algebra, make an
account of the whole people, expressing their several ages, sex,
marriages, title, trade, religion, &c., and those who survey the
hearths, or the constables or the parish clerks (may, if required)
do the same ex officio, and without other charge, by the command of
the chief governor, the diocesan, or the mayor.
8. The bills of London have since their beginning admitted several
alterations and improvements, and 8 or 10 pounds per annum
surcharge, would make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and
become an excellent instrument of Government. To which purpose the
forms for weekly, quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly
recommended, viz.
TABLE A-- YEARLY BILLS OF MORTALITY FOR
A.D. LONDON and DUBLIN.
Burials Births Burials Births
1680 21,053 12,747 1,826 1,096
1679 21,730 12,288 1,397 1,061
1678 20,678 12,601 1,401 1,045
1674 21,201 11,851 2,106 942
1672 18,230 12,563 1,436 987
1668 17,278 11,633 1,699 1,026
120,170 73,683 9,865 6,157
The medium
or 6th part
whereof is
part whereof
is 20,028 12,280 1,644 1,026
TABLE A--CONTINUED
A.D. LONDON.
BURIALS. BIRTHS.
Male Female Male Female
1680 11,039 10,044 6,543 6,041
1679 11,154 10,576 6,247 6,041
1678 10,681 9,977 6,568 6,033
1674 11,000 10,196 6,113 5,738
1672 9,560 8,070 6,443 6,120
1668 9,111 8,167 6,073 5,566
62,545 57,030 37,992 35,697
The medium
or 6th part
whereof is
part whereof
is 10,424 9,505 6,332 5,949
TABLE B.--DUBLIN.
A.D. Burials Births In Ternaries of Years
1666 1,480 952 }
1667 1,642 1,001 } 4,821 2,979
1668 1,699 1,026 }
1669 1,666 1,000 }
1670 1,713 1,067 } 5,353 3,070
1671 1,974 1,003 }
1672 1,436 967 }
1673 1,531 933 } 5,073 2,842
1674 2,106 942 }
1675 1,578 823 }
1676 1,391 952 } 4,328 2,672
1677 1,359 897 }
1678 1,401 1,045 }
1679 1,397 1,061 } 4,624 3,202
1680 1,826 1,096 }
24,199 14,765 24,199 14,765
The medium }
or 15th }1,613 984 1,613 984
part whereof }
is }
TABLE C.
THE PARISHES OF DUBLIN A.D. A.D., 1670-71-72
1671. at a medium
Families Hearths Births Burials
St. Katherine's 661 2,399 161 290
and St. James's
St. Nicholas Without 490 2,348 207 262
St. Michan's 656 2,301 127 221
St. Andrew's with Donnybrook 483 2,123 108 178
St. Bridget's 416 1,989 70 100
St. John's 244 1,337 70 138
St. Warburgh's 267 1,650 54 103
St. Audaen's 216 1,081 53 121
St. Michael's 140 793 44 59
St. Kevin's 106 433 64 133
St. Nicholas Within 93 614 28 34
St. Patrick's Liberties 52 255 21 44
Christ Church and Trinity
College, per estimate 26 197 - 1
3,850 17,500 1,013 1,696
Houses built between 1671 and
1681, per estimate 150 550
4,000 18,150
A WEEKLY BILL OF MORTALITY FOR THE CITY OF DUBLIN,
Ending the XXX day of XXX 1681.
PARISHES' NAMES.
St. Katharine's and St. James's
St. Nicholas Without
St. Michan's
St. Andrew's with Donnybrook
St. Bridget's
St. John's
St. Warburgh's
St. Audaen's
St. Michael's
St. Kevin's
St. Nicholas Within
St. Patrick's Liberties
Christ Church and Trinity College
Totals
[The columns for the table are: Births, Males, Females, Burials,
Under 16 years old, Plague, Small Pox, Measles, Spotted Fever. In
the book there are no figures in the table at all.--DP.]
A QUARTERLY BILL OF MORTALITY,
Beginning XXX and ending XXX for the City of DUBLIN
PARISHES' NAMES.
St. Katharine's and St. James's
St. Nicholas Without
St. Michan's
St. Andrew's with Donnybrook
St. Bridget's
St. John's
St. Warburgh's
St. Audaen's
St. Michael's
St. Kevin's
St. Nicholas Within
St. Patrick's Liberties
Christ Church and Trinity College
Totals
[The columns for the table are: Births 1.; Marriages 2.; Buried
under 16 years olds; Buried above 60 years old; Measles, Spotted
Fever, Small Pox, Plague; Consumption, Dropsy, Gout, Stone; Fever,
Pleurisy, Quinsy, Sudden Death; Aged above 70 years old; Infants
under 2 years old; All other Casualties. In the book there are no
figures in the table at all.--DP.]
AN ACCOUNT OF THE PEOPLE OF DUBLIN FOR ONE YEAR,
Ending the 24th of March, 1681.
PARISHES' NAMES.
St. Katharine's and St. James's
St. Nicholas Without
St. Michan's
St. Andrew's with Donnybrook
St. Bridget's
St. John's
St. Warburgh's
St. Audaen's
St. Michael's
St. Kevin's
St. Nicholas Within
St. Patrick's Liberties
Christ Church and Trinity College
Totals
[The columns for the table are: Number of person; Males; Females;
Remarried Persons; Persons under 16 years old; Persons above 60
years old; Protestants of above 16 years old; Papists of above 16
years old; Of all other religions above 16 years old; Births;
Burials; Marriages. In the book there are no figures in the table
at all.--DP.]
CASUALTIES AND DISEASES.
Aged above 70 years Epilepsy and planet
Abortive and still-born Fever and ague
Childbed women Pleurisy
Convulsion Quinsy
Teeth Executed, murdered,
Worms drowned
Gout and sciatica Plague and spotted fever
Stone Griping of the guts
Palsy Scouring, vomiting
Consumption and French bleeding
pox Small pox
Dropsy and tympany Measles
Rickets and livergrown Neither of all the other
Headache and megrim sorts
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