Books: A Brief History of Panics
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Clement Juglar >> A Brief History of Panics
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The retarding or precipitating influence of a good or bad condition of
agriculture upon the advent of a panic is also indicated.
The symptoms of approaching panic, generally patent to every one, are
wonderful prosperity as indicated by very numerous enterprises and
schemes of all sorts, by a rise in the price of all commodities, of
land, of houses, etc., etc., by an active request for workmen, a rise in
salaries, a lowering of interest, by the gullibility of the public, by a
general taste for speculating in order to grow rich at once, by a
growing luxury leading to excessive expenditures, a very large amount of
discounts and loans and bank notes [Footnote: Our recent banking history
has proved rather an exception to this law as far as bank notes are
concerned, because of the obviously unusual cause of sudden and enormous
calling in of government bonds, the basis of bank-note issue.] and a
very small reserve in specie and legal-tender notes and poor and
decreasing deposits.
On the other hand, the lowest point of depression following a panic is
accompanied by the converse of the symptoms just enumerated.
Bank balance sheets reflect in cold figures the result of the above
influences. Prices being high, and discounts and loans large in
proportion to deposits, and having steadily increased for years, danger
is near; further, when discounts and loans are not only large in
proportion to deposits, having increased steadily for years, and then
suddenly fallen off noticeably for a considerable time, only to increase
again, danger is imminent.
On the other hand, a steady and radical reduction of loans and
discounts, following a panic and extending until new enterprises are
very scarce, till prices are very low, till there is wide-spread
idleness among workmen, a decrease in salaries and in interest rates,
when the public is wary and speculation dead, and expenditures are cut
down as far as possible, may be taken to mean a rapid and continued
resumption of every prosperous business: but if the above process is
only partially performed, renewed trouble must result;--in other words,
liquidation to really be helpful (to congested business) must be
thorough.
A study of the first of the following tables, "National Banks of the
United States," illustrates the above generalization. It is unnecessary
to mention that 1878, 1884, and 1890 have been the last three panic
years. But it is very necessary in studying this table, to bear in mind
that its figures are taken from the standing of the banks at the first
of the year, while the panics generally occurred later in the year: the
last two, for instance in the second and fourth quarter, respectively.
The third and fourth tables will give more exact figures in this
connection. Table Two, dealing with State Banks, is given merely to
round out our banking history as told in figures.
The increase or diminution of deposits of course reflects a confident
and successful, or a panicky and impoverishing, state of general
business.
TABLE NO. 1.--NATIONAL BANKS OF THE UNITED STATES
_________________________________________________________________________
Percentage of Difference (over or under) |
between Deposits and Loans and Discounts. |
________________________________________________________________ \ |
Difference between Deposits and Loans and Discounts. (Millions) | |
_________________________________________________________ \ | |
Percentage "Working Capital" exceeds Loans and Discounts.| | |
____________________________________________________ \ | | |
Excess of Capital (Surplus, Undivided Profits, | | | |
and Deposits) over Loans and Discounts. (Millions) | | | |
_____________________________________________ \ | | | |
| LOANS | "WORKING CAPITAL." | | | | |
| AND |__________________________| | | | |
| DISCOUNTS.| Capital. | | | | |
|______ \ | / ___________________| | | | |
| | | | Undivided Profits | | | | |
| | | | and Surplus, etc. | | | | |
YEAR|MONTH.| | | / _____________| | | | |
| | | | | Deposits | | | | |
| | | | | / ______| | | | |
| | | | | |TOTAL.| | | | |
==========================================================================
| |-----------In Millions.----------| | | | |
1863|Oct. 5| 5.464| 7.188|0.128| 8.497|15.913|10.347|65.4|+3.031|35.6 ovr|
1864|Jan. 4|10.666|14.740|0.432|19.450|34.622|23.956|69.2|+8.784|45.1 " |
1865|Jan. 2| 166 | 135 | 20 | 183 | 338 | 152 |47.7|+ 17 | 9.2 " |
1866|Jan. 1| 500 | 403 | 71 | 522 | 996 | 496 |49.8|+ 22 | 4.2 " |
1867|Jan. 7| 608 | 420 | 86 | 538 | 1064 | 456 |42.8|- 50 | 8.9 und|
1868|Jan. 6| 616 | 420 | 101 | 534 | 1055 | 439 |41.6|- 82 |15.3 " |
1869|Jan. 4| 644 | 419 | 116 | 568 | 1103 | 559 |46.4|- 76 |13.3 " |
1870|Jan.22| 688 | 426 | 124 | 546 | 1096 | 408 |37.2|- 142 |26 " |
1871|Mch.18| 767 | 444 | 140 | 561 | 1145 | 378 |33. |- 206 |36.7 " |
1872|Feb.27| 839 | 464 | 147 | 593 | 1204 | 365 |30.3|- 246 |41.4 " |
*1873|Feb.28| 913 | 484 | 163 | 656 | 1303 | 390 |29.9|- 257 |29.1 " |
1874|Feb.27| 897 | 490 | 173 | 595 | 1258 | 361 |28.6|- 302 |52.4 " |
1875|Mch. 1| 956 | 496 | 182 | 647 | 1325 | 369 |27.8|- 309 |47.7 " |
1876|Mch.10| 950 | 504 | 184 | 620 | 1308 | 358 |27.3|- 330 |53.2 " |
1877|Jan.20| 920 | 493 | 167 | 659 | 1319 | 399 |30.2|- 261 |39.6 " |
1878|Mch.15| 854 | 473 | 165 | 602 | 1240 | 386 |31.1|- 252 |41.8 " |
1879|Jan. 1| 823 | 462 | 153 | 643 | 1258 | 435 |34.5|- 180 |27.9 " |
1880|Feb.21| 974 | 454 | 159 | 848 | 1461 | 487 |33.3|- 126 |14.8 " |
1881|Mch.11| 1073 | 458 | 176 | 933 | 1567 | 494 |31.5|- 140 |15 " |
1882|Mch.11| 1182 | 469 | 191 | 1036 | 1696 | 514 |30.3|- 146 |14 " |
1883|Mch.13| 1249 | 490 | 196 | 1004 | 1690 | 441 |26.1|- 245 |24.4 " |
*1884|Mch. 7| 1321 | 515 | 209 | 1046 | 1770 | 449 |25.3|- 275 |26.2 " |
1885|Mch.10| 1232 | 524 | 206 | 996 | 1726 | 494 |28.6|- 236 |23.6 " |
1886|Mch. 1| 1367 | 533 | 212 | 1152 | 1897 | 530 |27.9|- 215 |18.6 " |
1887|Mch. 4| 1515 | 555 | 231 | 1224 | 2010 | 495 |24.6|- 291 |23.7 " |
1888|Feb.14| 1584 | 582 | 246 | 1251 | 2079 | 495 |23.7|- 333 |26.6 " |
1889|Feb.26| 1704 | 596 | 269 | 1354 | 2219 | 515 |23.1|- 350 |25.8 " |
*1890|Feb.28| 1844 | 626 | 290 | 1479 | 2395 | 551 |22.2|- 365 |24.6 " |
1891|Feb.26| 1927 | 662 | 316 | 1483 | 2461 | 534 |21.7|- 444 |29.8 " |
1892|Mch. 1| 2044 | 679 | 330 | 1702 | 2711 | 667 |24.6|- 342 |20.1 " |
1893|Mch. 6| 2159 | 688 | 348 | 1751 | 2787 | 627 |22.6|- 408 |23.3 " |
1894|Feb.28| 1872 | 678 | 332 | 1586 | 2596 | 724 |27.9|- 286 |18. " |
1895|Mch. 5| 1965 | 662 | 329 | 1667 | 2658 | 693 |26.2|- 298 |17.8 " |
1896|Feb.28| 1966 | 653 | 334 | 1648 | 2635 | 669 |25.4|- 318 |19.2 " |
1897|Mch. 9| 1898 | 642 | 333 | 1669 | 2644 | 746 |29. |- 229 |13.6 " |
1898|Feb.18| 2152 | 628 | 334 | 1982 | 2944 | 792 |27. |- 170 | 8.5 " |
1899|Feb. 4| 2299 | 608 | 332 | 2232 | 3172 | 873 |27.6|- 67 | 3. " |
1900|Feb.13| 2481 | 613 | 363 | 2481 | 3457 | 976 |28.3|+ | 0. |
1901|Feb. 5| 2814 | 634 | 398 | 2753 | 3785 | 971 |25.7|- 61 | 2.2 " |
1902|Feb.25| 3128 | 667 | 448 | 2982 | 4097 | 969 |23.7|- 146 | 4.9 " |
1903|Feb. 6| 3350 | 731 | 516 | 3159 | 4406 | 1056 |24. |- 191 | 5.6 " |
1904|Jan.22| 3469 | 765 | 562 | 3300 | 4627 | 1158 |25.1|- 169 | 5.1 " |
1905|Jan.11| 3728 | 776 | 589 | 3612 | 4977 | 1279 |25.1|- 116 | 3.2 " |
1906|Jan.29| 4071 | 814 | 635 | 4088 | 5537 | 1466 |26.5|+ 17 | .41 ovr|
1907|Jan.26| 4463 | 860 | 689 | 4115 | 5664 | 1201 |21.3|- 348 | 8.4 und|
1908|Feb.14| 4422 | 905 | 742 | 4105 | 5752 | 1330 |23.2|- 317 | 7.7 " |
1909|Feb. 5| 4840 | 927 | 772 | 4699 | 6398 | 1558 |24.4|- 141 | 2.9 " |
1910|Jan.31| 5229 | 960 | 818 | 5190 | 6968 | 1739 |25. |- 39 | .73 " |
1911|Jan. 7| 5402 | 1007 | 884 | 5113 | 7004 | 1602 |22.9|- 289 | 5.6 " |
1912|Feb.20| 5810 | 1031 | 927 | 5630 | 7588 | 1778 |23.5|- 180 | 3.1 " |
1913|Feb. 4| 6125 | 1048 | 958 | 5985 | 7991 | 1866 |23.4|- 140 | 2.3 " |
1914|Jan.13| 6175 | 1057 | 991 | 6072 | 8120 | 1945 |23.9|- 103 | 1.7 " |
1915|Mch. 4| 6499 | 1066 |1012 | 7148 | 9226 | 2727 |29.6|+ 649 | 9.9 ovr|
----+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+------+--------+
NOTE:--These Figures are for the standing at the first part of the year
as indicated.
*Panic Years.
TABLE NO. 2.
UNITED STATES TABLE OF BALANCE SHEETS.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
------+-----------+---------+----------+-----------+----------+---------+
| | SPECIE | DISCOUNTS| INDIVIDUAL| NUMBER | |
YEAR |CIRCULATION| ON | AND | DEPOSITS | OF | CAPITAL |
| | HAND | LOANS | | BANKS | |
------+-----------+---------+----------+-----------+----------+---------+
1811 | 28 | 15 | | | 89 | 52 |
1815 *| 45 | 17 | | | 208 | 88 |
1816 *| 68 | 19 | | | 246 | 89 |
1819 | 35 | 9 | 73 | | | 72 |
1820 *| 44 | 19 | | 35 | 308 | 137 |
1830 | 61 | 22 | 200 | 55 | 330 | 145 |
1834 | 94 | | | | | |
1835 | 103 | 43 | 324 | 75 | 506 | 200 |
1836 | 140 | 40 | 365 | 83 | 704 | 231 |
1837 | 149 | 37 | 457 | 115 | 713 | 251 |
| | | 525 | 127 | 788 | 290 |
1838 | 116 | 35 | 485 | 84 | 829 | 317 |
1839_*| 135 | 45 | 492 | 90 | 840 | 327 |
1840 | 106 | 33 | 462 | 75 | 901 | 358 |
1841 | 107 | 34 | 386 | 64 | 784 | 313 |
1842 | 83 | 28 | 323 | 62 | 692 | 260 |
1843 | 58 | 33 | 254 | 56 | 691 | 228 |
1844 | 75 | 49 | 264 | 84 | 696 | 210 |
1845 | 89 | 44 | 288 | 88 | 707 | 206 |
1846 | 105 | 42 | 312 | 96 | 707 | 196 |
1847 | 105 | 35 | 310 | 91 | 715 | 203 |
1848_*| 128 | 46 | 344 | 103 | 751 | 204 |
1849 | 114 | 43 | 332 | 91 | 782 | 207 |
1850 | 131 | 45 | 364 | 109 | 824 | 217 |
1851 | 155 | 48 | 413 | 128 | 879 | 227 |
1854 | 204 | 59 | 557 | 188 | 1208 | 301 |
1855 | 186 | 53 | 576 | 190 | 1307 | 332 |
1856 | 195 | 59 | 634 | 212 | 1398 | 343 |
1857_*| 214 | 58 | 684 | 230 | 1416 | 370 |
1858 | 155 | 74 | 583 | 185 | 1422 | 394 |
1859 | 193 | 104 | 657 | 259 | 1476 | 401 |
1860 | 207 | 83 | 691 | 253 | 1562 | 421 |
1861 | 202 | 87 | 696 | 257 | 1601 | 429 |
1862 | 183 | 102 | 646 | 296 | 1492 | 418 |
1863 *| 238 | 101 | 648 | 393 | 1466 | 405 |
------+-----------+---------+----------+-----------+----------+---------+
*PANIC YEARS
TABLE NO. 3.
UNITED STATES TABLE OF BALANCE SHEETS OF
THE NATIONAL BANKS--QUARTERLY STATEMENT.
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
------+-------+-------+-------+-------+---------+-------+-------+-------+
| |SPECIE | | DIS- | INDIVI- |NUMBER | |SURPLUS|
|CIRCU- | ON | LEGAL | COUNTS| DUAL | OF | |AND UN-|
YEAR |LATION | HAND |TENDERS| AND | DEPOSITS| BANKS |CAPITAL|DIVIDED|
| | | | LOANS | | | |PROFITS|
------+-------+-------+-------+-------+---------+-------+-------+-------+
|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|
| | | | | | | | |
1865 | 66| 4| 72| 166| 183|1500 |393 |20 |
2nd Q| | | | | | | | |
3rd "| |18 |189 | | | | | |
4th "|171 | | |487 | | | | |
1866 | | | | |500 | | | |
2nd "| 213|19 |187 |500 | | | | |
3rd "| | | | | 522|1644 |415 |71 |
4th "|280 | | | | | | | |
1867 | | |205 |603 |564 | | | |
2nd "| | 9| | |558 | | | |
3rd "| | | | | 512|1642 |420 |86 |
4th "|293 | | 92| | | | | |
1868 | |20 |114 |609 | 532|1643 |420 |101 |
2nd "| | | 84| | | | | |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "|295 | | | | | | | |
1869 | |29 | | | |1617 |426 |116 |
2nd "| | | |657 |580 | | | |
3rd "| | | 80| | | | | |
4th "| |48 | | | | | | |
1870 | | | |686 |574 | | | |
2nd "| | | |688 | 511|1648 |430 |124 |
3rd "| | 18| 94 79| |546 | | | |
4th "|296 | | | | 501| | | |
1871 | | | |725 | | | | |
2nd "| | |122 | | | | | |
3rd "| | 13| 93| | |1790 |458 |140 |
4th "|318 | | 97 | | | | | |
1872 | | | |831 |611 | | | |
2nd "| | |122 | | | | | |
3rd "| | 10| | | |1940 |479 |147 |
4th "|336 | | | |620 | | | |
1873 *| | | | | | | | |
2nd "| | 16|10 97|885 |656 | | | |
3rd "|339 | 19| | |622 616|1976 |491 |153 |
4th "|341 |33 | 92|944 | | | | |
1874 | | |103 | | | | | |
2nd "| | 21| | 836| 540| | | |
3rd "| | | 80|897 | 595|2027 |493 |173 |
4th "| 331| | |955 |682 | | | |
1875 | | | | |695 | | | |
2nd "| | 8| |984 | |2087 |504 |182 |
3rd "| | | | | 618| | | |
4th "| 314| | 70| | | | | |
------+-------+-------+-------+-------+---------+-------+-------+-------+
*PANIC YEARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
------+-------+-------+-------+-------+---------+-------+-------+-------+
| |SPECIE | | DIS- | INDIVI- |NUMBER | |SURPLUS|
|CIRCU- | ON | LEGAL | COUNTS| DUAL | OF | |AND UN-|
YEAR |LATION | HAND |TENDERS| AND | DEPOSITS| BANKS |CAPITAL|DIVIDED|
| | | | LOANS | | | |PROFITS|
------+-------+-------+-------+-------+---------+-------+-------+-------+
|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|
| | | | | | | | |
1876 | | | | | |2089 |499 |184 |
2nd Q| | 21| | | 612| | | |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "| 291|32 |90 | | | | | |
1877 | |49 | 66| 929| | | | |
2nd "| 290| | | |659 |2080 |479 | |
3rd "| | 21| | | | | |167 |
4th "| | | 66| | | | | |
1878 | |54 | | | | | | |
2nd "| | 29| | 881| 604| | | |
3rd "| | | | |625 |2053 |466 |165 |
4th "|303 | | | | | | | |
1879 | |41 | 54| 826| 588| | | |
2nd "| | | | 814| |2048 |454 |153 |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "|321 |79 | 54|933 |765 | | | |
1880 | | | | | | | | |
2nd "| |86 | | | | | | |
3rd "| |109 |64 |974 | |2090 |457 |159 |
4th "| 317| 105| |1040 | | | | |
1881 | | | 52| |1000 | | | |
2nd "| 298|128 | | | 932|2132 |463 | |
3rd "| | | | | | | |176 |
4th "|323 | | | | | | | |
1882 | | 109| |1100 |1100 1000|2268 |483 | |
2nd "| |112 | | | | | | |
3rd "| | 102| |1200 |1122 | | |191 |
4th "|315 | |68 | | | | | |
1883 | | | | | | | | |
2nd "| | 97| | | | | | |
3rd "| 304|115 | | | | | | |
4th "| | | | | 1000|2501 |509 |196 |
1884 *| | |80 |1300 |1100 | | | |
2nd "| |109 | 75| | |2664 |524 | |
3rd "| 289|128 |77 |1306 | | | |209 |
4th "| |167 | | 1200|1000 975| | | |
1885 | | | | | | | | |
2nd "| |177 |79 | | | | | |
3rd "| | | 69| 1200| |2714 |527 |206 |
4th "| 268| | | |1100 | | | |
1886 | |171 | 62| | | | | |
2nd "| | 149| |1470 |1152 |2852 |548 | |
3rd "| | | | |1172 | | |212 |
4th "| 202| | | | | | | |
1887 | |171 |79 | | |3049 |578 | |
2nd "| | | 73|1587 |1285 | | |231 |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "| 164| 159| | | | | | |
1888 | | 172|83 | | | | | |
2nd "| |178 | | | | | | |
3rd "| | | | | |3120 |588 | |
4th "| 151|182 | | | | | |246 |
1889 | | | 81|1684 |1350 | | | |
2nd "| | |97 | | |3170 |596 |269 |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "| 126| 164| | | | | | |
1890 *| |171 | 84|1811 |1436 | | | |
2nd "| | | | | |3383 |626 |290 |
3rd "| |178 | | | | | | |
4th "| 123|190 | | | | | | |
1891 | | | 82|1932 |1521 | | | |
2nd "| | | | | 1483|3601 |662 |316 |
3rd "| 123|199 | | |1575 | | | |
4th "| | |100 |1962 |1525 | | | |
------+-------+-------+-------+-------+---------+-------+-------+-------+
*PANIC YEARS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
------+-------+-------+-------+-------+---------+-------+-------+-------+
| |SPECIE | | DIS- | INDIVI- |NUMBER | |SURPLUS|
|CIRCU- | ON | LEGAL | COUNTS| DUAL | OF | |AND UN-|
YEAR |LATION | HAND |TENDERS| AND | DEPOSITS| BANKS |CAPITAL|DIVIDED|
| | | | LOANS | | | |PROFITS|
------+-------+-------+-------+-------+---------+-------+-------+-------+
|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|MAX MIN|
1892 | | | | | | | | |
1st Q|141 |230 |99 |2044 |1702 |3711 |678 |330 |
2nd "| |239 | |2171 |1769 | | | |
3rd "| | |113 | | | | | |
4th "|145 | 209| | | |3784 |689 |353 |
1893 | | | | | | | | |
1st "| 149| | 90|2161 |1751 |3830 |688 |352 |
2nd "| | 186| | | | | | |
3rd "| 182| | | 1843| | | | |
4th "| |251 |131 | | 1451| | | |
1894 | | | | | | | | |
1st "|174 |259 |146 | 1872| |3777 |678 | |
2nd "| | | | | | | | |
3rd "| 189| | |2007 |1728 | | | |
4th "| | 218| 119| | | | |339 |
1895 | | | | | | | | |
1st "| 169|220 | | 1965| |3728 |662 | |
2nd "| | | | | | | | |
3rd "| | | | |1736 | | | |
4th "|185 | 196| 93|2059 | | | |340 |
1896 | | | | | | | | |
1st "| 187| 196| |1982 |1687 |3699 |653 | |
2nd "| | |118 | | | | | |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "|210 | | 110| 1893| 1597| | |342 |
1897 | | | | | | | | |
1st "|202 | 233| | | 1669|3634 |642 | |
2nd "| | |126 | | | | | |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "| 193|252 | 107|2100 |1916 | | |341 |
1898 | | | | | | | | |
1st "| 184| 271|120 | | |3594 |628 | |
2nd "| | | | | | | | |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "| | | 110|2214 |2225 | | |340 |
1899 | | | | | | | | |
1st "| |371 |116 | | | |608 | |
2nd "| 199| | | | | | | |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "| | 314| 101|2496 |2522 |3602 | |363 |
1900 | | | | | | | | |
1st "| 204| 339| 122| | | | | |
2nd "| | | | | | | | |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "| | |145 |2706 |2623 |3942 |632 |403 |
1901 | | | | | | | | |
1st "| 309|399 | | | | | | |
2nd "| | | | | | | | |
3rd "| | |164 | | | | | |
4th "| | 369| 151|3038 |2964 |4291 |665 |448 |
1902 | | | | | | | | |
1st "| 309| | | | | | | |
2nd "| 309| |164 | | | | | |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "| | 366| 141|3303 |3209 |4666 |714 |516 |
1903 | | | | | | | | |
1st "| 335| | | | | | | |
2nd "| | |163 | |3200 | | | |
3rd "| | | | | | | | |
4th "| | 378| 142|3481 | |5118 |758 |564 |
------+-------+-------+-------+-------+---------+-------+-------+-------+
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